Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
7th · 23 pts · 17 played
LWDWW
2–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 9 pts · 17 played
DLLDL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were clear favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 12). Istanbul Basaksehir had 26 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 27.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days26 · 27.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Istanbul Basaksehir62%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük16%
Istanbul Basaksehir62%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük16%
Istanbul Basaksehir63%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük16%
Istanbul Basaksehir55%
Draw24%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Istanbul Basaksehir61%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük16%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 29
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirFatih Karagümrük
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
32
AttackIn forecast
13
34
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirFatih Karagümrük
1.59
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.88
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
82%
Scored inContext
47%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
12.47
ShotsContext
10.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
27%
8.31
Shots in the boxContext
5.12
62%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.47
12.76
Shots allowedContext
14.94
4.47
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.24
3.75
BlocksContext
3.50
3.41
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.31
76%
Save rateContext
66%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
424
PassesContext
360
359
Accurate passesContext
283
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.63
12.12
FoulsContext
14.06
14.06
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.70
ShotsContext
9.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
33%
On target shareContext
26%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
62%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.70
4.22
BlocksContext
3.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
77%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
416
PassesContext
343
351
Accurate passesContext
268
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.30
FoulsContext
15.50
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest26 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest27.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 26Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Dec | 27.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
10Nuno da Costa
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
32Muhammed Kadioglu
47Ricardo Esgaio
8B. Özcan
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
19D. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 3–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 9 of 48 · 0.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 17 Sep 2025Fatih Karagümrük0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 20 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 20 Aug 2023Istanbul Basaksehir0–2Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.59 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.71 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 41% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 41% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 53% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 3.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.53 | 5.53 | |
| Match total | 10.59 | 9.12 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 13/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 11/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 59% 10/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.35 | 4.12 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 14/17 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 11/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.80 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.21league 4.44
Red cards0.45league 0.25
Cards 5+66%league 46%
Fouls27.2league 25.7
Penalties0.31league 0.26
Home wins34%league 37%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Oct 24H · Kayserispor1–11
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D24 Oct 25H · Kayserispor2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir17 games · scored 27 · conceded 18
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük17 games · scored 14 · conceded 32
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
11
61-75
6
5
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
