Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Atalanta. Juventus had 7 days of rest, Atalanta 6.1 and had to travel 170 km.
Away travel170 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Juventus44%
Draw28%
Atalanta29%
Juventus42%
Draw27%
Atalanta31%
Juventus42%
Draw28%
Atalanta30%
Juventus37%
Draw28%
Atalanta35%
Juventus44%
Draw27%
Atalanta29%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 76
Team strength
Juventus
Atalanta
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
57
AttackIn forecast
48
76
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusAtalanta
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.00
ShotsContext
15.00
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
37%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
10.75
55%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.00
BlocksContext
2.75
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
55%
Save rateContext
85%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
468
PassesContext
503
400
Accurate passesContext
427
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.13
12.00
FoulsContext
11.25
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.84
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.10
ShotsContext
14.10
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
61%
Box shareContext
73%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.50
BlocksContext
3.33
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
414
PassesContext
467
351
Accurate passesContext
392
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.01
13.40
FoulsContext
11.10
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel170 km339 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 170 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 339 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
4F. Gatti
27A. Cambiaso
19K. Thuram
8T. Koopmeiners
15P. Kalulu
10K. Yıldız
17V. Adžić
20I. Openda
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
19B. Djimsiti
3K. Kossounou
77D. Zappacosta
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
16R. Bellanova
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
90N. Krstović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus+2.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Atalanta-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Atalanta · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Juventus wins5 draws2 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 9 Mar 2025Juventus0–4Atalanta
- 14 Jan 2025Atalanta1–1Juventus
- 10 Mar 2024Juventus2–2Atalanta
- 1 Oct 2023Atalanta0–0Juventus
- 7 May 2023Atalanta0–2Juventus
- 22 Jan 2023Juventus3–3Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Juventus | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 9.00 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 1.75 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Juventus | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.25 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 1.60 | 3.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.61
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 37%
Fouls25.1league 26.1
Penalties0.46league 0.22
Home wins37%league 39%
Juventus7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L9 Mar 25H · Atalanta0–41
- W9 Nov 24H · Torino2–01
- W30 Dec 23H · AS Roma1–01
- D30 Apr 23A · Bologna1–12
- L6 May 22A · Genoa1–23
Atalanta8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W12 May 25H · AS Roma2–11
- W9 Mar 25A · Juventus4–01
- W8 Feb 25A · Verona5–01
- W26 May 24H · Torino3–01
- L4 Nov 23H · Inter1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus4 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Atalanta4 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
