Juventus vs Atalanta – 20 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 20 · 17:00 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus 8th · 7 pts · 4 played WWDL

2–0Full time

Atalanta 11th · 6 pts · 4 played WWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 2.9 days of rest, Atalanta 7.9 and had to travel 170 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel170 kmRest days2.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 1

Juventus58%

Draw22%

Atalanta20%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.03

Juventus49%

Draw25%

Atalanta26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Juventus59%

Draw22%

Atalanta19%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.00

Juventus50%

Draw24%

Atalanta26%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.15

Juventus57%

Draw23%

Atalanta20%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.01

Over 2.5 56% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

27°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 50%

Warm

Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 43

Team strength

Juventus

Atalanta

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

57 AttackIn forecast 48

76 DefenceIn forecast 45

66 Form indexContext 49

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Atalanta

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

0.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.50

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 25%

18.25 ShotsContext 12.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

33% On target shareContext 31%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

54% Box shareContext 55%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.50

7.00 Shots allowedContext 20.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

1.33 BlocksContext 5.67

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

73% Save rateContext 85%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

486 PassesContext 520

422 Accurate passesContext 459

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.86

16.00 FoulsContext 9.50

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

0.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

17.70 ShotsContext 12.40

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

34% On target shareContext 32%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

64% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.43

8.40 Shots allowedContext 15.60

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

1.88 BlocksContext 3.78

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

73% Save rateContext 81%

58% PossessionIn forecast 52%

493 PassesContext 515

428 Accurate passesContext 443

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.85

13.30 FoulsContext 12.20

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus WWDLW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 66 · 10 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts
L13 SepA · Sassuolo2–31.6 xPts
D6 SepH · AC Milan1–11.8 xPts
W29 AugH · Parma2–02.3 xPts
W23 AugA · Frosinone1–02.0 xPts

Atalanta WWLL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel170 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 6 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

L12 SepH · Cagliari1–22.0 xPts
L5 SepA · AS Roma1–20.7 xPts
W31 AugH · Bologna1–01.7 xPts
W23 AugH · Sassuolo2–12.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	7.9Serie A 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	170 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	471 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	22

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

25G. Vicario(G)

26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

2M. Çelik 12Douglas Luiz 22W. McKennie 31N. González

17Kerim Alajbegović 7Francisco Conceição

9R. Kolo Muani

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

4-3-3

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

47L. Bernasconi 42G. Scalvini 31T. Kristensen 16R. Bellanova

13Éderson 19F. Kessie 10L. Samardžić

11J. Rowe 90N. Krstović 17C. De Ketelaere

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus-1.7 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Atalanta+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Atalanta · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Juventus	Atalanta
Sassuolo	L 2–3 A	W 2–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Juventus wins6 draws2 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.30 Over 2.530% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 30%

11 Apr 2026Atalanta0–1Juventus
27 Sep 2025Juventus1–1Atalanta
9 Mar 2025Juventus0–4Atalanta
14 Jan 2025Atalanta1–1Juventus
10 Mar 2024Juventus2–2Atalanta
1 Oct 2023Atalanta0–0Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.25
Conceded per game	1.00	1.25
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.92
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	56%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	Juventus	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	0.90	1.30
Match goals	2.40	2.50	2.92
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	9.50	2.25
Corners conceded	2.25	5.50
Match total	11.75	7.75	9.53
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	0.50
Opponent cards	2.50	0.00
Match total	4.25	0.50	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 4/4	0% 0/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4

	Juventus	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	8.22	3.10
Corners conceded	2.11	4.50
Match total	10.33	7.60	9.53
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.20
Opponent cards	2.20	0.60
Match total	3.80	1.80	3.38
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.81league 3.31

Red cards0.09league 0.02

Cards 5+26%league 25%

Fouls23.4league 22.1

Penalties0.30league 0.10

Home wins51%league 42%

Juventus6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 May 26A · Torino2–22
W6 Jan 26A · Sassuolo3–00
D8 Nov 25H · Torino0–00
W12 Apr 25H · Lecce2–10
W2 Feb 25H · Empoli4–10

Atalanta3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W10 May 26A · AC Milan3–23
D4 Oct 25H · Como1–11
W20 Oct 24A · Venezia2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.