Juventus
Attack−2%
Defense risk+2%
Our take
Juventus were clear favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus were without M. Locatelli and K. Yıldız. Lazio were without A. Marušić. Juventus had 3 days of rest, Lazio 7.2 and had to travel 526 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel526 kmRest days3 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Juventus61%
Draw22%
Lazio17%
Juventus52%
Draw25%
Lazio23%
Juventus61%
Draw22%
Lazio17%
Juventus53%
Draw24%
Lazio22%
Juventus62%
Draw21%
Lazio17%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
15°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 90%
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 122
Team strength
Juventus
Lazio
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
57
AttackIn forecast
53
76
DefenceIn forecast
63
74
Form indexContext
82
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack−27%
Defense risk+26%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
JuventusLazio
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.17
ShotsContext
13.33
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
34%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
54%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.00
Shots allowedContext
13.17
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
1.60
BlocksContext
3.83
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
67%
Save rateContext
84%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
550
PassesContext
457
487
Accurate passesContext
394
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.67
FoulsContext
12.83
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.30
ShotsContext
11.80
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
39%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
62%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.30
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
1.89
BlocksContext
3.20
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
66%
Save rateContext
78%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
524
PassesContext
475
459
Accurate passesContext
415
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.50
FoulsContext
12.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
LWWDW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,030 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Lazio
WWDWW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel526 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 82 · 13 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 7.2Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,030 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik
26J. Lucumí
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
29P. Sarr
12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović
22W. McKennie
31N. González
9R. Kolo Muani
Lazio
Confirmed XI
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
37J. Šutalo
15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor
21R. Belahyane
16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni
14T. Noslin
11G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −33.9% · Defence line −11.9% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Locatelli Core 7.59 Att −9.6% Def −7.4%
- ATT K. Yıldız Core 7.23 Att −16.6%
- MID K. Thuram Starter 6.95 Att −4.7% Def −3.6%
- ATT J. Boga Rotation 6.92 Att −2.9%
- DEF K. Grabara Rotation 7.56 Def −0.9%
- ATT A. Milik Depth 6.35 Att −0.1%
Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −12.5% · Defence line −18.3% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Marušić Starter 6.57 Def −12.3%
- ATT M. Cancellieri Rotation 6.79 Att −8.8%
- DEF L. Pellegrini Rotation 6.58 Def −3.4%
- DEF Patric Rotation 6.68 Def −1.6%
- MID N. Rovella Rotation 6.86 Att −1.7% Def −0.8%
- ATT A. Guðmundsson Rotation 6.82 Att −2.0%
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lazio+0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Lazio · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Juventus wins3 draws3 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 8 Feb 2026Juventus2–2Lazio
- 26 Oct 2025Lazio1–0Juventus
- 10 May 2025Lazio1–1Juventus
- 19 Oct 2024Juventus1–0Lazio
- 30 Mar 2024Lazio1–0Juventus
- 16 Sep 2023Juventus3–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Juventus | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.60 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.83 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 5.66 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Juventus | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.78 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.56 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 8.70 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.10 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 122 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.31
Red cards0.29league 0.06
Cards 5+50%league 30%
Fouls24.9league 21.4
Penalties0.20league 0.15
Home wins36%league 48%
Juventus12 with this referee
Record7-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L17 May 26H · Fiorentina0–21
- W6 Apr 26H · Genoa2–04
- L17 Jan 26A · Cagliari0–11
- W14 Dec 25A · Bologna1–01
- D10 May 25A · Lazio1–15
Lazio14 with this referee
Record3-7-4
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds5
- L4 Jan 26H · Napoli0–26
- D30 Oct 25A · Pisa0–02
- D10 May 25H · Juventus1–15
- D31 Mar 25H · Torino1–13
- D15 Feb 25H · Napoli2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus6 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Lazio6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
