Juventus vs Parma – 24 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 24 · 19:45 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus

2–0Full time

Parma

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 33). Juventus had ? days of rest, Parma ? and had to travel 210 km.

Away travel210 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Juventus64%

Draw22%

Parma14%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.78

Juventus65%

Draw21%

Parma14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.86

Juventus64%

Draw22%

Parma14%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.78

Juventus56%

Draw25%

Parma19%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.87

Juventus65%

Draw21%

Parma14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.87

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 36

Team strength

Juventus

Parma

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

57 AttackIn forecast 20

76 DefenceIn forecast 33

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

Parma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 8.90

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

35% On target shareContext 44%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

63% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

3.60 BlocksContext 3.70

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

83% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

455 PassesContext 358

389 Accurate passesContext 287

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.10 FoulsContext 12.30

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Parma

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel210 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	Parma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	210 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 4F. Gatti

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 15P. Kalulu

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Parma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31Z. Suzuki(G)

5L. Valenti 39A. Circati 15E. Delprato

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 10Adrián Bernabé 18M. Løvik

24C. Ordoñez 11P. Almqvist

9Mateo Pellegrino

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Parma+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home No home games yet this season.

Parma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Juventus wins1 draws1 Parma wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

23 Apr 2025Parma1–0Juventus
30 Oct 2024Juventus2–2Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	47%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Juventus	Parma	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	47%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.40
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Juventus	Parma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	3.44
Corners conceded	4.22	4.78
Match total	10.44	8.22	6.60
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	4.50	3.90	4.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 4.33

Red cards0.36league 0.17

Cards 5+64%league 67%

Fouls23.4league 27.8

Penalties0.25league 0.00

Home wins44%league 33%

Juventus2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

W19 Aug 24H · Como3–02
D11 Sep 22H · Salernitana2–26

Parma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.