Juventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 41). Absences weigh more on Juventus. Juventus had 6.9 days of rest, Torino 6.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Juventus57%
Draw24%
Torino18%
Juventus59%
Draw23%
Torino18%
Juventus58%
Draw24%
Torino17%
Juventus50%
Draw27%
Torino23%
Juventus59%
Draw23%
Torino18%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
Juventus
Torino
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
57
AttackIn forecast
39
76
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JuventusTorino
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.10
ShotsContext
11.60
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
36%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
61%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
11.10
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.10
BlocksContext
3.10
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
62%
Save rateContext
63%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
474
PassesContext
367
408
Accurate passesContext
296
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.70
FoulsContext
14.10
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.30
ShotsContext
11.60
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
37%
On target shareContext
36%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
61%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.00
BlocksContext
3.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
469
PassesContext
367
404
Accurate passesContext
296
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.70
FoulsContext
14.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Juventus
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,418 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Torino
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Juventus |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,418 km | 590 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 16 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
8T. Koopmeiners
24D. Rugani
15P. Kalulu
27A. Cambiaso
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
22W. McKennie
10K. Yıldız
7Francisco Conceição
9D. Vlahović
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
44A. Ismajli
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
8I. Ilić
22C. Casadei
16M. Pedersen
18G. Simeone
26C. Ngonge
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Juventus-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Torino+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Juventus · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Torino · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Juventus | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 0–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Inter | W 4–3 H | L 0–5 A |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Juventus wins3 draws0 Torino wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.513%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets63% · 13%
- 11 Jan 2025Torino1–1Juventus
- 9 Nov 2024Juventus2–0Torino
- 13 Apr 2024Torino0–0Juventus
- 7 Oct 2023Juventus2–0Torino
- 28 Feb 2023Juventus4–2Torino
- 15 Oct 2022Torino0–1Juventus
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Juventus | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Juventus | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Juventus | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.01 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Juventus | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.01 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.90league 3.94
Red cards0.10league 0.13
Cards 5+30%league 40%
Fouls24.2league 26.1
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins57%league 37%
Juventus3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 Apr 25H · Lecce2–10
- W2 Feb 25H · Empoli4–10
- D30 Oct 24H · Parma2–22
Torino1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D7 May 23H · Monza1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Juventus10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
