Süper Lig Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 11 · 13:00 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul
Kasimpasa 7th · 13 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Gazişehir Gaziantep 14th · 8 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel850 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Kasimpasa—%
Draw—%
Gazişehir Gaziantep—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (İstanbul)

Forecast from 27 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Kasimpasa and Gazişehir Gaziantep. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

KasimpasaGazişehir Gaziantep
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
21 AttackIn forecast 15
32 DefenceIn forecast 18
42 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Gazişehir Gaziantep

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KasimpasaGazişehir Gaziantep
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.10
1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35
+0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
88% Scored inContext 63%
25% Clean sheetsContext 25%
12.13 ShotsContext 12.86
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
31% On target shareContext 28%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.57
52% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.40 OffsidesContext 2.71
13.88 Shots allowedContext 13.29
4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.29 BlocksContext 3.57
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.29
77% Save rateContext 57%
42% PossessionIn forecast 52%
334 PassesContext 431
264 Accurate passesContext 358
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.87
14.25 FoulsContext 11.14
12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 17.00
2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.01
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.10 ShotsContext 12.56
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56
32% On target shareContext 28%
6.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.67
57% Box shareContext 61%
14% ConversionContext 9%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.44
13.70 Shots allowedContext 13.44
4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
3.78 BlocksContext 3.33
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
77% Save rateContext 61%
41% PossessionIn forecast 53%
317 PassesContext 425
248 Accurate passesContext 352
78% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.84
14.60 FoulsContext 11.00
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 17.33
3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Samsunspor4–11.6 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Galatasaray1–30.6 xPts
  • D18 SepH · Konyaspor0–01.7 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Genclerbirligi2–11.4 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Amed2–21.5 xPts
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 20 · 4 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Istanbul Basaksehir1–20.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Çorum FK0–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Kocaelispor0–21.1 xPts
  • D14 SepH · Fenerbahce0–00.8 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Goztepe4–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kasimpasa Gazişehir Gaziantep
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 4 Apr7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km850 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Samsunspor (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo 27M. Ilie 4Adem Arous 2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay 16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol 51Elson Mendes 17J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Benedyczak
Gazişehir Gaziantep Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Istanbul Basaksehir (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
25K. Tobiasz(G)
21L. Sylla 14L. Abena 4A. Kızıldağ 2Luis Pérez
3D. Camara 61O. Özçiçek 8V. Gidado 18D. Sorescu
10K. Kozłowski 9T. Stewart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kasimpasa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Gazişehir Gaziantep Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-0-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentKasimpasaGazişehir Gaziantep
Istanbul Basaksehir D 1–1 A L 1–2 A
Çorum FK W 1–0 A L 0–3 H
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Kasimpasa wins2 draws3 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.83 – 2.17 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%
  • 9 Feb 2026Gazişehir Gaziantep2–1Kasimpasa
  • 30 Aug 2025Kasimpasa2–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 24 May 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Kasimpasa
  • 5 Jan 2025Kasimpasa2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
  • 21 Apr 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Kasimpasa
  • 3 Dec 2023Kasimpasa4–2Gazişehir Gaziantep

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KasimpasaGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 1.131.50
Match goals 2.632.50
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 38%13%
Both teams scored 75%50%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 13%38%
Games88
KasimpasaGazişehir GaziantepForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 1.201.60
Match goals 2.702.60
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 40%10%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KasimpasaGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won4.433.60
Corners conceded6.864.40
Match total11.298.009.12
Over 8.586% 6/760% 3/5
Over 9.571% 5/740% 2/5
Over 10.557% 4/740% 2/5
Cards
Cards2.752.38
Opponent cards2.132.50
Match total4.884.884.04
Over 3.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 4.550% 4/850% 4/8
KasimpasaGazişehir GaziantepLeague
Corners
Corners won4.114.29
Corners conceded6.674.71
Match total10.789.009.12
Over 8.589% 8/971% 5/7
Over 9.556% 5/943% 3/7
Over 10.544% 4/943% 3/7
Cards
Cards3.202.30
Opponent cards2.202.40
Match total5.404.704.04
Over 3.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Kasimpasa8 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 3 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep8 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 61-75
1 4 76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2 4 0-15
2 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Istanbul Basaksehir Goztepe Apr 1113:00 Konyaspor Samsunspor Apr 1113:00 Fenerbahce Çorum FK Apr 1113:00 Genclerbirligi Besiktas Apr 1113:00 Trabzonspor Alanyaspor Apr 1113:00 Kasimpasa Gazişehir Gaziantep Apr 1113:00 Erzurumspor FK Rizespor Apr 1113:00 Amed Galatasaray Apr 1113:00 Kocaelispor Eyüpspor Apr 1113:00