Kasimpasa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kasimpasa
15th · 14 pts · 15 played
LLWLD
0–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
14th · 14 pts · 15 played
LWLLW
Kasimpasa51.2%fair odds 1.95
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Genclerbirligi23.0%fair odds 4.35
Expected goals1.64 – 1.02total 2.67
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kasimpasa ↓ · Genclerbirligi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kasimpasa goals, columns Genclerbirligi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.13
- 1–010.8%9.26
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 2–09.4%10.66
- 0–07.6%13.21
- 0–16.5%15.40
- 1–26.0%16.72
- 3–15.3%19.01
- 3–05.1%19.46
- 2–24.9%20.35
Winning margin
11.9%
Kasimpasa by 3+
fair 8.44
15.9%
Kasimpasa by 2
fair 6.30
23.5%
Kasimpasa by 1
fair 4.26
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
14.4%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 6.94
6.2%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 16.24
2.4%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 41.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Kasimpasa goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Genclerbirligi goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 51.2% | 51.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Genclerbirligi win | 23.0% | 23.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 52.0% | -2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 54.1% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Kasimpasa | 1.64 | 1.69 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 1.02 | 1.07 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kasimpasa win51.2%1.95
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Genclerbirligi win23.0%4.35
- Double chance Kasimpasa or draw77.0%1.30
- Double chance Kasimpasa or Genclerbirligi74.2%1.35
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw48.8%2.05
- Draw no bet Kasimpasa69.0%1.45
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi31.0%3.23
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.9%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.1%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.540.0%2.50
- Kasimpasa win and yes22.9%4.37
- Draw and yes18.2%5.48
- Genclerbirligi win and yes11.2%8.93
Team goals
- Kasimpasa over 0.580.7%1.24
- Kasimpasa over 1.548.9%2.05
- Kasimpasa over 2.522.8%4.39
- Genclerbirligi over 0.564.1%1.56
- Genclerbirligi over 1.527.3%3.67
- Genclerbirligi over 2.58.5%11.81
- Kasimpasa clean sheet35.9%2.78
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet19.3%5.17
- Kasimpasa win to nil28.4%3.52
- Genclerbirligi win to nil11.8%8.50
Handicap
- Kasimpasa −1.527.7%3.61
- Kasimpasa −2.511.9%8.44
- Genclerbirligi +1.572.3%1.38
- Genclerbirligi +2.588.1%1.13
- Genclerbirligi −1.58.6%11.68
- Kasimpasa +1.591.4%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored135
Favourite won45.9%
Avg chance given to result39.6%
1X2 Brier0.604
Over 2.5 called right50.4%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.1% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 60 | 44.2% | 35.0% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 55.1% | 53.1% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.7% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 76.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 109 of 135 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6151 | 0.6009 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 46.8% | 48.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 109 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 135 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.