Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kasimpasa
15th · 14 pts · 15 played
LLWLD
0–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
14th · 14 pts · 15 played
LWLLW
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
Kasimpasa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 13). Kasimpasa had 5.1 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 5.2 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kasimpasa51%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi23%
Kasimpasa51%
Draw25%
Genclerbirligi24%
Kasimpasa51%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi23%
Kasimpasa44%
Draw27%
Genclerbirligi29%
Kasimpasa51%
Draw25%
Genclerbirligi23%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 12
Team strength
KasimpasaGenclerbirligi
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
21
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaGenclerbirligi
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
67%
Scored inContext
73%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.73
ShotsContext
10.27
3.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
25%
On target shareContext
33%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.87
58%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.67
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.07
BlocksContext
4.91
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
72%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
323
PassesContext
296
251
Accurate passesContext
231
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.73
FoulsContext
12.33
12.27
Fouls sufferedContext
13.27
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.10
ShotsContext
10.50
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
28%
On target shareContext
36%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
64%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.80
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.11
BlocksContext
5.13
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
315
PassesContext
286
244
Accurate passesContext
221
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.30
FoulsContext
12.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 915 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
20N. Opoku
14J. Espinoza
16A. Baldursson
6Cem Üstündag
9Y. Barası
34F. Diabaté
12A. Ben Ouanes
77P. Guèye
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
70F. Tongya
11G. Gürpüz
22S. Koïta
29M. Niang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genclerbirligi-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.53 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Kasimpasa | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.08 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 4.93 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 9.29 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 4.46 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Kasimpasa | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 9.22 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.80 | 4.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.48
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+25%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 26.2
Penalties0.42league 0.27
Home wins50%league 35%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Sep 25H · Fenerbahce1–14
Genclerbirligi2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Nov 25A · Kocaelispor0–10
- W18 Oct 25A · Besiktas2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa15 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genclerbirligi15 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
