Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kayserispor
16th · 15 pts · 18 played
WDDDL
0–3Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 26 pts · 18 played
WDWWW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 16). Kayserispor had 4.8 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 6.9 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days4.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kayserispor29%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Kayserispor30%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir43%
Kayserispor30%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Kayserispor23%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir51%
Kayserispor30%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir43%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
RefereeBatuhan Kolak
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 8
Team strength
KayserisporIstanbul Basaksehir
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
16
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporIstanbul Basaksehir
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.61
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
67%
Scored inContext
83%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.44
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
35%
On target shareContext
33%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.41
56%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.33
Shots allowedContext
12.67
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.79
BlocksContext
3.75
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
71%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
351
PassesContext
432
280
Accurate passesContext
367
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.67
FoulsContext
12.33
12.56
Fouls sufferedContext
13.72
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.10
ShotsContext
14.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
34%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
54%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.33
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.88
BlocksContext
4.38
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
72%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
344
PassesContext
437
276
Accurate passesContext
374
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.50
FoulsContext
12.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Jan | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
15Y. Aït Bennasser
30A. Opoku
8L. Bénes
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
10João Mendes
28R. Civelek
9G. Onugkha
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 H | W 5–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | L 3–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 14 of 51 · 0.82 per game | 25 of 51 · 1.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Kayserispor wins3 draws0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 17 Aug 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Kayserispor
- 8 Mar 2025Kayserispor3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 5 Oct 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Kayserispor
- 19 Feb 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–3Kayserispor
- 2 Oct 2023Kayserispor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.61 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.67 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Kayserispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.28 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 10.34 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.61 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.27 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 14/18 | 83% 15/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 9/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Kayserispor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 10.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.00 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Batuhan Kolak 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.38
Red cards0.13league 0.24
Cards 5+25%league 45%
Fouls24.4league 25.7
Penalties0.25league 0.25
Home wins25%league 37%
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Mar 25H · Hatayspor5–01
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Oct 25H · Kocaelispor1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor18 games · scored 16 · conceded 34
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
7
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir18 games · scored 29 · conceded 19
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
5
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
