Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 13). Kocaelispor had 5.1 days of rest, Antalyaspor 6 and had to travel 410 km.
Away travel410 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor59%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor18%
Kocaelispor57%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Kocaelispor58%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Kocaelispor51%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor24%
Kocaelispor58%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor19%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Antalyaspor
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
16
AttackIn forecast
11
32
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporAntalyaspor
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.94
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
63%
Scored inContext
69%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.19
ShotsContext
8.13
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
44%
6.06
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
59%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.75
Shots allowedContext
14.56
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
3.33
BlocksContext
3.00
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
67%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
361
PassesContext
337
289
Accurate passesContext
269
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.81
FoulsContext
11.56
14.06
Fouls sufferedContext
14.19
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
7.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
4.89
62%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.30
9.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.22
BlocksContext
2.80
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
62%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
387
PassesContext
326
317
Accurate passesContext
261
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.64
13.90
FoulsContext
11.60
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel410 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 410 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 29.9 | 29.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
8H. Keïta
17D. Churlinov
75T. Bingöl
7Daniel Agyei
9B. Petković
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
8R. Safuri
6S. Dikmen
88D. Šarić
22S. van de Streek
77Yohan Boli
11S. Ballet
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Antalyaspor-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.88points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-1
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 0.38
Antalyaspor · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | L 1–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | L 2–5 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 0.94 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 1.81 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 19% | 56% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Kocaelispor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.73 | 5.19 | |
| Match total | 8.53 | 9.00 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 3/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 4.63 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Kocaelispor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.50 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.00 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.44
Red cards1.00league 0.26
Cards 5+100%league 47%
Fouls31.0league 26.1
Penalties1.00league 0.27
Home wins0%league 34%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor16 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
Antalyaspor16 games · scored 15 · conceded 29
2
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 23
1
6
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
