Kocaelispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Kocaelispor
9th · 27 pts · 21 played
WLDLW
3–0Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
8th · 28 pts · 21 played
LDDLW
Kocaelispor50.0%fair odds 2.00
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.74
Gazişehir Gaziantep23.2%fair odds 4.31
Expected goals1.55 – 0.98total 2.53
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gazişehir Gaziantep
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Kocaelispor ↓ · Gazişehir Gaziantep → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Kocaelispor goals, columns Gazişehir Gaziantep goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.86
- 1–011.7%8.54
- 2–09.6%10.43
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 0–08.6%11.64
- 0–17.1%14.00
- 1–25.9%16.90
- 3–05.0%20.15
- 3–14.9%20.59
- 2–24.6%21.77
Winning margin
10.8%
Kocaelispor by 3+
fair 9.29
15.5%
Kocaelispor by 2
fair 6.47
23.8%
Kocaelispor by 1
fair 4.20
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.74
14.8%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1
fair 6.77
6.1%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2
fair 16.27
2.3%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+
fair 43.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Kocaelispor goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Gazişehir Gaziantep goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 50.0% | 49.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep win | 23.2% | 23.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.4% | 45.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 49.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Kocaelispor | 1.55 | 1.54 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep | 0.98 | 0.97 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Kocaelispor win50.0%2.00
- Draw26.8%3.74
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win23.2%4.31
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw76.8%1.30
- Double chance Kocaelispor or Gazişehir Gaziantep73.2%1.37
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw50.0%2.00
- Draw no bet Kocaelispor68.3%1.46
- Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep31.7%3.16
Goals
- Over 0.591.4%1.09
- Over 1.572.6%1.38
- Over 2.546.4%2.15
- Over 3.524.9%4.01
- Over 4.511.3%8.84
- Under 1.527.4%3.64
- Under 2.553.6%1.87
- Under 3.575.1%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.01
- No50.1%1.99
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.69
- Kocaelispor win and yes21.0%4.75
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes10.6%9.41
Team goals
- Kocaelispor over 0.578.8%1.27
- Kocaelispor over 1.546.0%2.18
- Kocaelispor over 2.520.4%4.89
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.562.4%1.60
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.525.6%3.90
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.57.6%13.08
- Kocaelispor clean sheet37.6%2.66
- Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet21.2%4.72
- Kocaelispor win to nil29.0%3.45
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil12.6%7.95
Handicap
- Kocaelispor −1.526.2%3.81
- Kocaelispor −2.510.8%9.29
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.573.8%1.36
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +2.589.2%1.12
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.58.4%11.85
- Kocaelispor +1.591.6%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored194
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.0% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.1% | 36.9% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 55.0% | 53.3% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 64.8% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 76.2% | 84.6% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 168 of 194 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5920 | 0.5792 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 51.2% | 51.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 168 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Gazişehir Gaziantep 2–1 Kasimpasa44·27·29
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- ✗Besiktas 2–2 Alanyaspor58·23·19
- ✓Rizespor 0–3 Galatasaray16·23·62
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 194 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.