Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kocaelispor
9th · 27 pts · 21 played
WLDLW
3–0Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
8th · 28 pts · 21 played
LDDLW
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kocaelispor. Kocaelispor had 5.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 5.8 and had to travel 906 km.
Away travel906 kmRest days5.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor50%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Kocaelispor48%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep26%
Kocaelispor49%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Kocaelispor43%
Draw28%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Kocaelispor50%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeFatih Tokail
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
KocaelisporGazişehir Gaziantep
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
16
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporGazişehir Gaziantep
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
62%
Scored inContext
76%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.19
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
60%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.73
10.86
Shots allowedContext
13.52
3.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.65
BlocksContext
3.33
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
64%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
361
PassesContext
384
289
Accurate passesContext
319
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.95
FoulsContext
13.10
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
16.38
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
3.05
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
60%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
11.50
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
33%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
60%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.57
9.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
2.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.56
BlocksContext
4.10
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
60%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
388
PassesContext
350
317
Accurate passesContext
284
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.78
FoulsContext
13.10
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,388 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel906 km1,013 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 906 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,388 km | 1,013 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
14Show
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
9B. Petković
7Daniel Agyei
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
23T. Sanuç
30N. Sangaré
11C. Lungoyi
44A. Maxim
61O. Özçiçek
10K. Kozłowski
18D. Sorescu
70D. Drăguş
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 0.73
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game | 25 of 60 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 14 Sep 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.05 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 62% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.10 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.95 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 7/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 3/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 3.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 4.62 | 6.67 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 90% 19/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 86% 18/21 | |
| Kocaelispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.34 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 6.00 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fatih Tokail Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.00league 4.45
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+100%league 47%
Fouls28.0league 25.9
Penalties1.00league 0.27
Home wins0%league 37%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D24 May 25H · Kasimpasa2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor21 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep21 games · scored 29 · conceded 35
4
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
8
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
3
11
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
