Konyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Konyaspor
12th · 31 pts · 28 played
LDWWD
3–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 20 pts · 28 played
LDWLW
Konyaspor52.4%fair odds 1.91
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Fatih Karagümrük22.2%fair odds 4.51
Expected goals1.68 – 1.01total 2.69
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Konyaspor ↓ · Fatih Karagümrük → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Konyaspor goals, columns Fatih Karagümrük goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.24
- 1–010.8%9.28
- 2–19.7%10.34
- 2–09.6%10.46
- 0–07.4%13.52
- 0–16.3%15.98
- 1–25.8%17.15
- 3–15.4%18.48
- 3–05.3%18.70
- 2–24.9%20.44
Winning margin
12.5%
Konyaspor by 3+
fair 8.00
16.3%
Konyaspor by 2
fair 6.15
23.6%
Konyaspor by 1
fair 4.24
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
14.0%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 7.15
5.9%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 16.92
2.3%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 44.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Konyaspor goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor win | 52.4% | 51.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 22.2% | 22.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 50.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.4% | 52.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Konyaspor | 1.68 | 1.67 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 1.01 | 1.03 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Konyaspor win52.4%1.91
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Fatih Karagümrük win22.2%4.51
- Double chance Konyaspor or draw77.8%1.28
- Double chance Konyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük74.5%1.34
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw47.6%2.10
- Draw no bet Konyaspor70.3%1.42
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük29.7%3.36
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.6%1.32
- Over 2.550.4%1.98
- Over 3.528.4%3.52
- Over 4.513.6%7.37
- Under 1.524.4%4.09
- Under 2.549.6%2.02
- Under 3.571.6%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes52.4%1.91
- No47.6%2.10
- Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
- Konyaspor win and yes23.4%4.27
- Draw and yes18.1%5.54
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes10.9%9.17
Team goals
- Konyaspor over 0.581.3%1.23
- Konyaspor over 1.550.0%2.00
- Konyaspor over 2.523.7%4.22
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.563.6%1.57
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.526.9%3.72
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.58.3%12.12
- Konyaspor clean sheet36.4%2.75
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet18.7%5.36
- Konyaspor win to nil29.0%3.45
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil11.3%8.87
Handicap
- Konyaspor −1.528.8%3.48
- Konyaspor −2.512.5%8.00
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.571.2%1.40
- Fatih Karagümrük +2.587.5%1.14
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.58.2%12.23
- Konyaspor +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored256
Favourite won52.3%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.582
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.1% | 41.2% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.0% | 59.1% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 65.3% | 75.9% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 206 of 256 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5847 | 0.5699 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 53.9% | 54.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 206 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Kayserispor 0–4 Fenerbahce18·24·58
- ✗Alanyaspor 1–1 Trabzonspor27·27·46
- ✓Istanbul Basaksehir 3–0 Genclerbirligi66·21·13
- ✓Besiktas 4–2 Antalyaspor68·19·13
- ✓Rizespor 4–1 Samsunspor39·27·34
- ✓Goztepe 1–3 Galatasaray30·26·44
- ✗Kocaelispor 0–0 Istanbul Basaksehir33·27·39
- ✓Fenerbahce 1–0 Besiktas45·26·29
- ✓Antalyaspor 3–0 Eyüpspor38·28·34
- ✗Samsunspor 2–2 Konyaspor46·27·27
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 256 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.