Konyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Konyaspor
12th · 31 pts · 28 played
LDWWD
3–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 20 pts · 28 played
LDWLW
Our take
Konyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Konyaspor. Konyaspor had 7 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 7 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Konyaspor52%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük22%
Konyaspor50%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük24%
Konyaspor53%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük22%
Konyaspor45%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük28%
Konyaspor52%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük23%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Konya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
KonyasporFatih Karagümrük
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
13
AttackIn forecast
13
31
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KonyasporFatih Karagümrük
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
79%
Scored inContext
61%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.89
ShotsContext
10.18
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.46
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.64
60%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.04
Shots allowedContext
13.93
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
3.15
BlocksContext
3.12
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.81
63%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
400
PassesContext
358
328
Accurate passesContext
282
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.46
FoulsContext
13.36
13.21
Fouls sufferedContext
14.46
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
61%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.44
BlocksContext
2.56
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
71%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
387
PassesContext
356
313
Accurate passesContext
281
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.40
FoulsContext
12.70
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Konyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,005 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Konyaspor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,005 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
18B. Kutlu
4A. Demirbağ
5U. Yazğılı
21J. Jo
10E. Bardhi
77M. İbrahimoğlu
16M. Jevtović
70K. Olaigbe
99B. Kramer
40J. Muleka
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
80S. Babicka
6B. Elmaz
8B. Özcan
10D. Verde
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Konyaspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Konyaspor-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Konyaspor · Home
1.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.07
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-11
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Konyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Galatasaray | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 31 of 81 · 1.15 per game | 17 of 81 · 0.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Konyaspor wins2 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025Fatih Karagümrük2–0Konyaspor
- 15 Mar 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Konyaspor
- 5 Nov 2023Konyaspor1–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Konyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 46% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 39% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Konyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Konyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.11 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 14/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 4.07 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Konyaspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.44 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 4.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.56league 4.41
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 45%
Fouls22.7league 26.1
Penalties0.11league 0.27
Home wins33%league 40%
Konyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Feb 26A · Istanbul Basaksehir0–21
- D24 Nov 25H · Antalyaspor0–01
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Konyaspor28 games · scored 33 · conceded 41
1
2
0-15
8
6
16-30
3
12
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
13
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük28 games · scored 26 · conceded 48
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
6
7
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
15
61-75
9
6
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
0-15
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
