KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
7th · 33 pts · 23 played
LDLDD
First leg1–2
2–0Full time
Antwerp
9th · 30 pts · 23 played
DWLLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Antwerp. KV Mechelen had 7 days of rest, Antwerp 8.1 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days7 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
KV Mechelen36%
Draw26%
Antwerp37%
KV Mechelen39%
Draw27%
Antwerp34%
KV Mechelen36%
Draw26%
Antwerp37%
KV Mechelen29%
Draw26%
Antwerp45%
KV Mechelen36%
Draw26%
Antwerp38%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 38
Team strength
KV MechelenAntwerp
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
18
AttackIn forecast
24
23
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenAntwerp
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
83%
Scored inContext
65%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.35
ShotsContext
11.04
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
37%
On target shareContext
38%
7.32
Shots in the boxContext
6.59
68%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.80
14.48
Shots allowedContext
13.43
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.41
4.33
BlocksContext
4.52
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
86%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
401
PassesContext
366
326
Accurate passesContext
291
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.09
FoulsContext
12.26
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
12.26
2.48
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.80
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
32%
On target shareContext
40%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
69%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.63
BlocksContext
4.80
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
83%
Save rateContext
85%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
419
PassesContext
357
338
Accurate passesContext
279
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.20
FoulsContext
12.70
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km47 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 47 km | 173 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
19A. Mrabti
38B. Antonio
9M. van Brederode
28B. Boersma
27K. Van Rafelghem
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
33Z. Van Den Bosch
21A. Verstraeten
4Yuto Tsunashima
8D. Praet
5D. Foulon
78Xander Dierickx
30C. Scott
24T. Somers
79G. Vandeplas
18V. Janssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.36points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-2
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.09
Antwerp · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Dender | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | W 4–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins1 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 24 Aug 2025Antwerp2–1KV Mechelen
- 17 Feb 2024Antwerp0–1KV Mechelen
- 30 Sep 2023KV Mechelen0–0Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 2.26 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 39% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 48% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 35% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.09 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 11.09 | 8.96 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 15/22 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 12/22 | 22% 5/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 4.17 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| KV Mechelen | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 9.30 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.89
Red cards0.34league 0.19
Cards 5+37%league 41%
Fouls25.0league 22.9
Penalties0.32league 0.29
Home wins42%league 41%
KV MechelenNo previous matches with this referee.
Antwerp4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W30 Nov 25A · Club Brugge KV1–03
- L20 Oct 25A · Standard Liege0–13
- W4 Nov 23H · Genk3–23
- W15 Sep 23A · KVC Westerlo3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen23 games · scored 28 · conceded 26
5
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
9
76-90
Antwerp23 games · scored 28 · conceded 24
3
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
