KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KV Mechelen
7th · 33 pts · 23 played
LDLDD
First leg1–2
2–0Full time
Antwerp
9th · 30 pts · 23 played
DWLLW
KV Mechelen36.1%fair odds 2.77
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
Antwerp37.5%fair odds 2.67
Expected goals1.39 – 1.43total 2.82
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Antwerp
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KV Mechelen ↓ · Antwerp → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns Antwerp goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.01
- 1–28.4%11.84
- 2–18.3%12.11
- 0–17.9%12.70
- 1–07.7%13.01
- 0–06.6%15.16
- 0–26.1%16.50
- 2–25.9%16.99
- 2–05.8%17.25
- 1–34.0%24.93
Winning margin
6.2%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 16.22
10.7%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 9.33
19.2%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 5.21
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
19.6%
Antwerp by 1
fair 5.09
11.2%
Antwerp by 2
fair 8.92
6.6%
Antwerp by 3+
fair 15.04
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
KV Mechelen goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Antwerp goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 36.1% | 35.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Antwerp win | 37.5% | 37.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 53.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.7% | 57.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.39 | 1.39 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Antwerp | 1.43 | 1.43 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KV Mechelen win36.1%2.77
- Draw26.4%3.78
- Antwerp win37.5%2.67
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw62.5%1.60
- Double chance KV Mechelen or Antwerp73.6%1.36
- Double chance Antwerp or draw63.9%1.56
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen49.0%2.04
- Draw no bet Antwerp51.0%1.96
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.28
- Over 2.553.5%1.87
- Over 3.531.2%3.20
- Over 4.515.5%6.44
- Under 1.522.2%4.51
- Under 2.546.5%2.15
- Under 3.568.8%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes57.7%1.73
- No42.3%2.37
- Yes and over 2.545.3%2.21
- KV Mechelen win and yes18.6%5.37
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- Antwerp win and yes19.3%5.19
Team goals
- KV Mechelen over 0.575.2%1.33
- KV Mechelen over 1.540.6%2.46
- KV Mechelen over 2.516.5%6.06
- Antwerp over 0.576.0%1.32
- Antwerp over 1.541.7%2.40
- Antwerp over 2.517.3%5.79
- KV Mechelen clean sheet24.0%4.16
- Antwerp clean sheet24.8%4.03
- KV Mechelen win to nil17.5%5.73
- Antwerp win to nil18.2%5.49
Handicap
- KV Mechelen −1.516.9%5.92
- KV Mechelen −2.56.2%16.22
- Antwerp +1.583.1%1.20
- Antwerp +2.593.8%1.07
- Antwerp −1.517.9%5.60
- KV Mechelen +1.582.1%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored191
Favourite won43.5%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.637
Over 2.5 called right50.3%
BTTS called right50.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 36 | 38.0% | 36.1% |
| 40–50% | 90 | 44.8% | 35.6% |
| 50–60% | 43 | 54.5% | 51.2% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.7% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 153 of 191 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6442 | 0.6346 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 42.5% | 42.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 153 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Dender 1–2 Genk30·26·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 191 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.