KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KV Mechelen47.6%fair odds 2.10
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Cercle Brugge26.1%fair odds 3.83
Expected goals1.58 – 1.11total 2.69
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KV Mechelen ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.97
- 1–010.1%9.88
- 2–19.4%10.64
- 2–08.5%11.79
- 0–07.4%13.43
- 0–16.9%14.45
- 1–26.6%15.15
- 2–25.2%19.19
- 3–14.9%20.22
- 3–04.5%22.41
Winning margin
10.2%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 9.76
14.6%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 6.83
22.7%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 4.41
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
15.8%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 6.35
7.2%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 13.85
3.1%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 32.20
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
KV Mechelen goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 47.6% | 47.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 26.1% | 26.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 51.0% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 54.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.58 | 1.59 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KV Mechelen win47.6%2.10
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Cercle Brugge win26.1%3.83
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw73.9%1.35
- Double chance KV Mechelen or Cercle Brugge73.7%1.36
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw52.4%1.91
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen64.6%1.55
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge35.4%2.82
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.32
- Over 2.550.3%1.99
- Over 3.528.3%3.53
- Over 4.513.5%7.40
- Under 1.524.5%4.08
- Under 2.549.7%2.01
- Under 3.571.7%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.16
- Yes and over 2.541.2%2.42
- KV Mechelen win and yes22.0%4.54
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- Cercle Brugge win and yes12.9%7.76
Team goals
- KV Mechelen over 0.579.4%1.26
- KV Mechelen over 1.546.8%2.14
- KV Mechelen over 2.521.1%4.74
- Cercle Brugge over 0.567.0%1.49
- Cercle Brugge over 1.530.4%3.29
- Cercle Brugge over 2.510.1%9.88
- KV Mechelen clean sheet33.0%3.03
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet20.6%4.85
- KV Mechelen win to nil25.6%3.91
- Cercle Brugge win to nil13.2%7.58
Handicap
- KV Mechelen −1.524.9%4.02
- KV Mechelen −2.510.2%9.76
- Cercle Brugge +1.575.1%1.33
- Cercle Brugge +2.589.8%1.11
- Cercle Brugge −1.510.3%9.68
- KV Mechelen +1.589.7%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored61
Favourite won45.9%
Avg chance given to result37.8%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right52.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.9% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.9% | 38.2% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 55.3% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.3% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 61 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6385 | 0.6664 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.4% | 36.7% |
| Favourite won | 43.5% | 39.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden70·19·12
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–2 Standard Liege42·27·31
- ✓Genk 1–2 Union St. Gilloise30·26·44
- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 Antwerp48·26·26
- ✗Charleroi 1–2 Zulte Waregem45·27·28
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 RAAL La Louvière39·28·32
- ✓Gent 3–0 Dender58·23·18
- ✗Genk 0–1 Charleroi56·24·20
- ✗St. Truiden 0–3 KVC Westerlo52·25·23
- ✗Anderlecht 1–1 Genk50·25·25
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 61 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.