KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. KV Mechelen had 8.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7.1 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days8.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
KV Mechelen40%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge32%
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge26%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 1.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
KV Mechelen
Cercle Brugge
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
18
AttackIn forecast
24
23
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenCercle Brugge
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.14
ShotsContext
11.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
45%
On target shareContext
34%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
67%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.14
16.00
Shots allowedContext
13.86
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
5.14
BlocksContext
2.71
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
90%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
395
PassesContext
359
326
Accurate passesContext
269
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.00
FoulsContext
9.57
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.00
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
41%
On target shareContext
35%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
68%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.90
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.90
BlocksContext
2.90
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
84%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
416
PassesContext
345
339
Accurate passesContext
253
81%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.93
8.80
FoulsContext
10.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 12 Sep | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti
14B. Raman
20L. Lauberbach
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
15G. Magnée
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
6L. Agyekum
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
9S. Ngoura
10O. Diakité
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins0 draws1 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 Mar 2024Cercle Brugge2–3KV Mechelen
- 28 Oct 2023KV Mechelen0–2Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| KV Mechelen | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.71 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 43% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.57 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 12.86 | 8.86 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 86% 6/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.29 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| KV Mechelen | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 9.30 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.50 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.67league 3.77
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 41%
Fouls19.0league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins67%league 43%
KV MechelenNo previous matches with this referee.
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen7 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge7 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
