KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 30). KV Mechelen had 6.1 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 5.1 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen25%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV49%
KV Mechelen25%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV49%
KV Mechelen25%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV49%
KV Mechelen19%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV56%
KV Mechelen25%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV49%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeErik Lambrechts
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
KV Mechelen
Club Brugge KV
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
18
AttackIn forecast
86
23
DefenceIn forecast
58
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenClub Brugge KV
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
63%
Box shareContext
58%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.40
BlocksContext
3.50
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
74%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
458
PassesContext
452
366
Accurate passesContext
388
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.40
FoulsContext
8.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Jul | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 150 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
1O. De Wolf(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
17R. Belghali
23Moncef Zekri
16R. Schoofs
6F. Hammar
77P. Pflücke
35B. Bafdili
19A. Mrabti
20L. Lauberbach
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
2Z. Romero
44B. Mechele
58J. Spileers
20H. Vanaken
15R. Onyedika
6L. Reis
8C. Tzolis
17R. Vermant
10H. Vetlesen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
No home games yet this season.
Club Brugge KV · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins2 draws0 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 10 Dec 2023KV Mechelen0–0Club Brugge KV
- 30 Jul 2023Club Brugge KV1–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| KV Mechelen | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 14.00 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.00 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| KV Mechelen | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 6.88 | 10.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.70 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erik Lambrechts 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.00
Red cards0.00league 0.13
Cards 5+100%league 38%
Fouls25.0league 23.8
Penalties0.00league 0.38
Home wins0%league 38%
KV MechelenNo previous matches with this referee.
Club Brugge KVNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Club Brugge KV1 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
