KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
4th · 36 pts · 24 played
DLDDW
First leg1–0
2–3Full time
Genk
8th · 32 pts · 24 played
LLDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. KV Mechelen had 5.1 days of rest, Genk 5.3 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days5.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
KV Mechelen38%
Draw26%
Genk35%
KV Mechelen39%
Draw27%
Genk33%
KV Mechelen38%
Draw26%
Genk35%
KV Mechelen31%
Draw26%
Genk43%
KV Mechelen38%
Draw27%
Genk35%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 28
Team strength
KV MechelenGenk
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
18
AttackIn forecast
46
23
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenGenk
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
83%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
10.21
ShotsContext
15.42
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.63
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.32
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
68%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.46
Shots allowedContext
12.17
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
4.36
BlocksContext
3.41
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
87%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
395
PassesContext
544
320
Accurate passesContext
472
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.04
FoulsContext
10.17
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.90
ShotsContext
14.60
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
41%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
69%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.20
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.50
BlocksContext
3.40
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
85%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
407
PassesContext
477
324
Accurate passesContext
402
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.40
FoulsContext
10.30
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km47 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km201 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 47 km | 201 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
19A. Mrabti
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
27K. Van Rafelghem
28B. Boersma
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
19Y. Medina
38D. Heymans
8B. Heynen
77Z. El Ouahdi
20K. Karetsas
23A. Bibout
10J. Ito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genk · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Dender | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Charleroi | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 32 of 69 · 1.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins1 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 23 Nov 2025Genk0–1KV Mechelen
- 11 Feb 2024KV Mechelen1–1Genk
- 22 Oct 2023Genk4–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.83 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 58% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 79% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 13% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| KV Mechelen | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.09 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.61 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 15/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.91 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| KV Mechelen | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.88
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+21%league 41%
Fouls20.1league 23.0
Penalties0.29league 0.29
Home wins43%league 41%
KV Mechelen6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · St. Truiden0–12
- W2 Mar 24A · Cercle Brugge3–22
- W20 Dec 23H · Standard Liege3–02
- W26 Nov 23A · Kortrijk3–02
- L22 Oct 23A · Genk0–42
Genk2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Nov 25A · Gent1–11
- W22 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen24 games · scored 30 · conceded 26
6
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
7
9
76-90
Genk24 games · scored 33 · conceded 35
7
9
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
