KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 18). KV Mechelen had 6.1 days of rest, OH Leuven 7 and had to travel 24 km.
Away travel24 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen56%
Draw25%
OH Leuven20%
KV Mechelen56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
KV Mechelen56%
Draw25%
OH Leuven20%
KV Mechelen48%
Draw26%
OH Leuven25%
KV Mechelen56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 17
Team strength
KV Mechelen
OH Leuven
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
18
AttackIn forecast
17
23
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenOH Leuven
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
91%
Scored inContext
64%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.64
ShotsContext
12.00
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
42%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
67%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.91
15.55
Shots allowedContext
11.73
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
4.73
BlocksContext
2.80
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
92%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
374
PassesContext
332
305
Accurate passesContext
256
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.64
9.64
FoulsContext
16.55
10.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.09
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
43%
On target shareContext
31%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
68%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.90
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.30
BlocksContext
2.78
4.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
94%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
370
PassesContext
331
300
Accurate passesContext
255
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.63
9.80
FoulsContext
16.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km64 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 24 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 64 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
11B. Bafdili
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
24Ł. Łakomy
6W. George
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
33M. Maertens
19C. Ikwuemesi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
OH Leuven · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 24 · 2.13 per game | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KV Mechelen wins0 draws2 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 17 Mar 2024OH Leuven1–0KV Mechelen
- 23 Sep 2023KV Mechelen1–2OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 45% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 36% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.91 | 4.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 11.91 | 9.36 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 3.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.27 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 3.45 | 5.45 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| KV Mechelen | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 9.10 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.60 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.87
Red cards0.24league 0.22
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls23.1league 23.4
Penalties0.41league 0.29
Home wins24%league 42%
KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D26 Jul 25A · Zulte Waregem1–13
- D5 Nov 23A · Standard Liege1–14
OH LeuvenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen11 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
OH Leuven11 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
