Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Aug 30 · 15:00 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 7th · 8 pts · 5 played
3–2Full time
RAAL La Louvière 11th · 4 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

KV Mechelen were slight favourites.

KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 25). KV Mechelen usually keep the ball (47% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. KV Mechelen had 6.1 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 5.9 and had to travel 63 km.

Away travel63 kmRest days6.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
KV Mechelen49%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière24%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.02
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière25%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10
KV Mechelen49%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière24%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.02
KV Mechelen42%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière30%
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.15
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière25%
Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10
Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)

No weather data yet

RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
  • Cards per match 4.0
  • Penalties per match 1.00
  • Matches 1

Team strength

KV MechelenRAAL La Louvière
32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
18 AttackIn forecast 15
23 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenRAAL La Louvière
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.64
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.24
100% Scored inContext 40%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.20 ShotsContext 9.20
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.20
41% On target shareContext 24%
7.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.80
62% Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 4%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75
17.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
5.60 BlocksContext 2.40
5.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
91% Save rateContext 84%
46% PossessionIn forecast 35%
387 PassesContext 267
321 Accurate passesContext 185
83% Pass accuracyContext 69%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.78
8.40 FoulsContext 12.00
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.40
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.64
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.24
90% Scored inContext 40%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.70 ShotsContext 9.20
4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.20
40% On target shareContext 24%
7.75 Shots in the boxContext 5.80
64% Box shareContext 61%
15% ConversionContext 4%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75
16.10 Shots allowedContext 10.80
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.50 BlocksContext 2.40
3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
85% Save rateContext 84%
47% PossessionIn forecast 35%
422 PassesContext 267
338 Accurate passesContext 185
80% Pass accuracyContext 69%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.78
8.10 FoulsContext 12.00
9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 5 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km44 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
RAAL La Louvière
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Aug5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways44 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one13.214.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1O. De Wolf(G)
4Gora Diouf 8M. Konaté 2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri 6F. Hammar 16R. Schoofs 7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti 11B. Bafdili
14B. Raman
RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
5-3-2
21M. Peano(G)
5T. Lutonda 25D. Lamego 13M. Maisonneuve 4Wagane Faye 11J. Liongola
98Owen Maes 15S. Lahssaini 10M. Pau
9M. Guindo 22J. Afriyie

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-1-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-0-2
Scored
0.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentKV MechelenRAAL La Louvière
Gent D 1–1 H L 0–1 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.200.40
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.201.40 2.57
Over 1.5 80%40%
Over 2.5 40%20% 47%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 80%20% 51%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 0%60%
Games55
KV MechelenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.200.40
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 2.201.40 2.57
Over 1.5 80%40%
Over 2.5 40%20% 47%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 80%20% 51%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 0%60%
Games55

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won5.604.00
Corners conceded7.003.00
Match total12.607.009.63
Over 8.580% 4/50% 0/5
Over 9.580% 4/50% 0/5
Over 10.580% 4/50% 0/5
Cards
Cards2.402.00
Opponent cards1.201.00
Match total3.603.003.87
Over 3.560% 3/520% 1/5
Over 4.520% 1/520% 1/5
KV MechelenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.904.00
Corners conceded5.803.00
Match total10.707.009.63
Over 8.560% 6/100% 0/5
Over 9.550% 5/100% 0/5
Over 10.550% 5/100% 0/5
Cards
Cards1.702.00
Opponent cards1.401.00
Match total3.103.003.87
Over 3.550% 5/1020% 1/5
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 1/5

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.66
Red cards1.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 32%
Fouls25.0league 22.6
Penalties1.00league 0.32
Home wins100%league 42%
KV Mechelen

No previous matches with this referee.

RAAL La Louvière

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
2 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 2 76-90
RAAL La Louvière5 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière5 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Cercle Brugge St. Truiden 11 KV Mechelen RAAL La Louvière 32 KVC Westerlo Antwerp 20 Charleroi Dender 31 OH Leuven Standard Liege 10 Union St. Gilloise Anderlecht 20 Genk Zulte Waregem 32