KV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
KV Mechelen
5th · 24 pts · 15 played
WDLDW
First leg1–1
0–1Full time
Standard Liege
10th · 18 pts · 15 played
WLWLD
Our take
KV Mechelen were slight favourites.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 27). KV Mechelen had 5.3 days of rest, Standard Liege 7 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days5.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
Standard Liege25%
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
Standard Liege25%
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
Standard Liege25%
KV Mechelen41%
Draw27%
Standard Liege31%
KV Mechelen49%
Draw26%
Standard Liege25%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Malines)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 17
Team strength
KV MechelenStandard Liege
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
18
AttackIn forecast
29
23
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KV MechelenStandard Liege
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
93%
Scored inContext
53%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.33
ShotsContext
10.20
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
39%
On target shareContext
35%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
70%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.58
15.93
Shots allowedContext
14.27
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.47
4.80
BlocksContext
4.40
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
89%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
381
PassesContext
371
310
Accurate passesContext
293
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.33
FoulsContext
10.93
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
39%
On target shareContext
32%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
73%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.10
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.40
BlocksContext
4.00
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
87%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
378
PassesContext
376
305
Accurate passesContext
297
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.80
FoulsContext
12.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KV Mechelen
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km144 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Standard Liege
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KV Mechelen |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 144 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
3José Marsà
29D. Salifou
17Mathis Servais
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
20L. Lauberbach
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
29D. Dierckx
7T. Mohr
8N. Mehssatou
20I. Karamoko
94C. Nielsen
18H. Lawrence
27Mo El Hankouri
9T. Henry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KV Mechelen · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Standard Liege · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-5
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KV Mechelen | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Anderlecht | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 42 · 1.64 per game | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 KV Mechelen wins2 draws0 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 12 Sep 2025Standard Liege1–1KV Mechelen
- 20 Dec 2023KV Mechelen3–0Standard Liege
- 5 Nov 2023Standard Liege1–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.13 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 47% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.90 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.87 | 5.47 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.40 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 9/15 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.46 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| KV Mechelen | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 10.20 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.70 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 3.89
Red cards0.06league 0.21
Cards 5+35%league 44%
Fouls23.9league 23.0
Penalties0.18league 0.28
Home wins41%league 43%
KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Nov 25A · Anderlecht1–31
- W4 Feb 24A · AS Eupen1–00
Standard Liege1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 Aug 25H · Dender1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KV Mechelen15 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
Standard Liege15 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
