KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KV Mechelen
5th · 24 pts · 15 played
WDLDW
First leg1–1
0–1Full time
Standard Liege
10th · 18 pts · 15 played
WLWLD
KV Mechelen48.8%fair odds 2.05
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Standard Liege24.9%fair odds 4.01
Expected goals1.59 – 1.07total 2.66
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KV Mechelen ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KV Mechelen goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.98
- 1–010.5%9.53
- 2–19.5%10.57
- 2–08.8%11.30
- 0–07.6%13.11
- 0–16.9%14.59
- 1–26.4%15.71
- 2–25.1%19.76
- 3–15.0%19.94
- 3–04.7%21.33
Winning margin
10.7%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 9.36
15.1%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 6.64
23.1%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 4.34
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
15.3%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 6.54
6.8%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 14.68
2.8%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 35.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
KV Mechelen goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Standard Liege goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 48.8% | 49.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 24.9% | 25.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 51.3% | -1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.9% | 54.2% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.59 | 1.63 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.07 | 1.10 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KV Mechelen win48.8%2.05
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Standard Liege win24.9%4.01
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw75.1%1.33
- Double chance KV Mechelen or Standard Liege73.7%1.36
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw51.2%1.95
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen66.2%1.51
- Draw no bet Standard Liege33.8%2.96
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.0%1.33
- Over 2.549.6%2.01
- Over 3.527.7%3.61
- Over 4.513.1%7.62
- Under 1.525.0%4.00
- Under 2.550.4%1.99
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes52.9%1.89
- No47.1%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.4%2.48
- KV Mechelen win and yes22.1%4.52
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- Standard Liege win and yes12.2%8.23
Team goals
- KV Mechelen over 0.579.6%1.26
- KV Mechelen over 1.547.2%2.12
- KV Mechelen over 2.521.4%4.67
- Standard Liege over 0.565.7%1.52
- Standard Liege over 1.529.0%3.45
- Standard Liege over 2.59.4%10.69
- KV Mechelen clean sheet34.3%2.91
- Standard Liege clean sheet20.4%4.90
- KV Mechelen win to nil26.7%3.75
- Standard Liege win to nil12.8%7.84
Handicap
- KV Mechelen −1.525.7%3.88
- KV Mechelen −2.510.7%9.36
- Standard Liege +1.574.3%1.35
- Standard Liege +2.589.3%1.12
- Standard Liege −1.59.6%10.40
- KV Mechelen +1.590.4%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored120
Favourite won46.7%
Avg chance given to result38.5%
1X2 Brier0.609
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 63 | 44.9% | 38.1% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 82 of 120 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6100 | 0.6049 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.7% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 46.3% | 48.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 82 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 120 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.