Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Dec 13 · 17:30 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel21 kmRest days15 · 2.9Matches / 14d0 · 2
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
Union St. Gilloise—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Malines)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Union St. Gilloise. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

KV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
18 AttackIn forecast 62
23 DefenceIn forecast 74
20 Form indexContext 73
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.75
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +1.43
38% Scored inContext 88%
13% Clean sheetsContext 63%
11.13 ShotsContext 16.88
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.13
28% On target shareContext 42%
7.88 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
68% Box shareContext 78%
10% ConversionContext 16%
2.86 OffsidesContext 2.75
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.13
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75
3.00 BlocksContext 4.13
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
58% Save rateContext 81%
47% PossessionIn forecast 53%
407 PassesContext 458
317 Accurate passesContext 377
78% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.55 Team ratingContext 7.14
12.25 FoulsContext 11.38
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70
0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.90
40% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 60%
10.90 ShotsContext 17.30
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
28% On target shareContext 41%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 13.20
65% Box shareContext 75%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.63 OffsidesContext 2.78
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90
5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
3.40 BlocksContext 3.90
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
60% Save rateContext 75%
47% PossessionIn forecast 51%
400 PassesContext 461
311 Accurate passesContext 379
78% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.55 Team ratingContext 7.12
10.90 FoulsContext 11.90
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts
Union St. Gilloise
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel21 km1,134 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match15Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 28 Nov2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km21 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km1,134 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 21 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one5.97

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Union St. Gilloise Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentKV MechelenUnion St. Gilloise
St. Truiden W 4–3 H W 3–0 A
Lommel United D 0–0 A W 5–0 H
Anderlecht L 0–1 H W 3–0 H
KVC Westerlo L 0–4 H W 5–1 A
Charleroi L 0–2 A W 3–2 A
Points4 of 15 · 0.80 per game15 of 15 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 KV Mechelen wins1 draws4 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.17 Over 2.533% Both scored17% Clean sheets17% · 67%
  • 10 May 2026Union St. Gilloise3–0KV Mechelen
  • 12 Apr 2026KV Mechelen0–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 17 Jan 2026Union St. Gilloise1–0KV Mechelen
  • 9 Nov 2025KV Mechelen1–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 17 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise1–0KV Mechelen
  • 19 Aug 2023KV Mechelen4–0Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.132.75
Conceded per game 2.130.50
Match goals 3.253.25
Over 1.5 75%88%
Over 2.5 50%63%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 38%38%
Clean sheets 13%63%
Failed to score 63%13%
Games88
KV MechelenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.102.30
Conceded per game 2.100.70
Match goals 3.203.00
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 50%30%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 20%60%
Failed to score 50%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.635.88
Corners conceded4.253.25
Match total8.889.1310.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.501.88
Opponent cards2.131.88
Match total3.633.763.36
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.550% 4/825% 2/8
KV MechelenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.204.80
Corners conceded4.103.90
Match total8.308.7010.01
Over 8.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 10.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards2.101.90
Match total3.603.903.36
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Genk OH Leuven Dec 1119:45 Kortrijk Lommel United Dec 1215:00 RAAL La Louvière Antwerp Dec 1217:15 Zulte Waregem Standard Liege Dec 1219:45 SK Beveren Cercle Brugge Dec 1219:45 Anderlecht Charleroi Dec 1312:30 Club Brugge KV KVC Westerlo Dec 1315:00 KV Mechelen Union St. Gilloise Dec 1317:30 Gent St. Truiden Dec 1318:15