Genk vs OH Leuven – 11 Dec 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Dec 11 · 19:45 Cegeka Arena, Genk

Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played WDDLW

VS— Compare

OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LLDWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel58 kmRest days12.3 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Genk—%

Draw—%

OH Leuven—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Genk)

Forecast from 26 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Genk

OH Leuven

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

46 AttackIn forecast 17

50 DefenceIn forecast 30

49 Form indexContext 25

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genk

OH Leuven

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.75

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

2.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

75% Scored inContext 63%

38% Clean sheetsContext 13%

13.88 ShotsContext 12.75

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.38

36% On target shareContext 19%

9.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

66% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 6%

2.83 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.75

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.29 BlocksContext 5.14

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

67% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

499 PassesContext 418

432 Accurate passesContext 329

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.72

11.25 FoulsContext 11.25

10.38 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

70% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

15.50 ShotsContext 12.70

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

37% On target shareContext 21%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

68% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 6%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.40 Shots allowedContext 15.00

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

5.11 BlocksContext 4.78

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

72% Save rateContext 66%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

497 PassesContext 402

429 Accurate passesContext 318

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.30 FoulsContext 10.90

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk WDDLW

Rest12.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts

OH Leuven LLDWD

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel58 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genk	OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Nov	14Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 27 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	58 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Genk Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct

28L. Brughmans(G)

18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro

8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović

32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct

13K. Vroman(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence

99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil

21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genk Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 0.75

OH Leuven · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Genk	OH Leuven
Club Brugge KV	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Gent	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
SK Beveren	W 4–0 H	L 0–3 A
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Genk wins1 draws1 OH Leuven wins

Goals per game1.67 – 0.83 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

23 May 2026OH Leuven0–2Genk
12 Apr 2026Genk0–0OH Leuven
30 Nov 2025Genk2–1OH Leuven
15 Aug 2025OH Leuven1–2Genk
31 Jan 2024OH Leuven2–1Genk
12 Nov 2023Genk3–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genk	OH Leuven
Scored per game	2.00	0.75
Conceded per game	1.50	1.75
Match goals	3.50	2.50
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	75%	50%
Over 3.5	38%	13%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	38%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Genk	OH Leuven
Scored per game	2.20	0.90
Conceded per game	2.20	1.40
Match goals	4.40	2.30
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	40%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genk	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	3.25
Corners conceded	5.88	8.25
Match total	9.76	11.50	10.01
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.88	2.13
Opponent cards	2.00	1.63
Match total	3.88	3.76	3.36
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8

	Genk	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.60
Corners conceded	5.40	8.20
Match total	10.00	11.80	10.01
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.20	3.36
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.