KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
13th · 17 pts · 16 played
DLLDD
First leg2–5
4–0Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 31 pts · 16 played
LWWWW
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 22). KVC Westerlo had 8 days of rest, Anderlecht 6.9 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
KVC Westerlo20%
Draw24%
Anderlecht56%
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 40
Team strength
KVC WesterloAnderlecht
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
42
AttackIn forecast
37
32
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloAnderlecht
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
56%
Scored inContext
81%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.44
ShotsContext
14.63
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.81
29%
On target shareContext
33%
10.81
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
69%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.36
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.56
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.06
3.69
BlocksContext
2.75
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
66%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
382
PassesContext
434
308
Accurate passesContext
354
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.38
FoulsContext
13.44
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
40%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.30
ShotsContext
14.50
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
25%
On target shareContext
30%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
69%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.20
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
3.38
BlocksContext
2.10
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
68%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
397
PassesContext
443
326
Accurate passesContext
361
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.40
FoulsContext
12.40
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km126 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 126 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
22B. Reynolds
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
5M. N'Diaye
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
7I. Camara
19N. Angulo
10Y. Verschaeren
74N. De Cat
29M. Stroeykens
91A. Bertaccini
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Anderlecht · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Gent | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genk | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 1–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 17 of 45 · 1.13 per game | 28 of 45 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws3 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.33 – 3.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Jul 2025Anderlecht5–2KVC Westerlo
- 1 Dec 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Anderlecht
- 20 Aug 2023Anderlecht2–1KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.25 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 25% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| KVC Westerlo | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.60 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 3.81 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.94 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 9/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.94 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.10 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.10league 3.82
Red cards0.40league 0.19
Cards 5+65%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 22.9
Penalties0.13league 0.29
Home wins40%league 42%
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Sep 25A · Club Brugge KV5–53
- D17 Mar 24H · Genk1–13
Anderlecht4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L24 Oct 25A · Charleroi0–12
- W17 Aug 25A · Dender2–01
- D24 Sep 23H · Club Brugge KV1–11
- W13 Aug 23A · St. Truiden1–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo16 games · scored 21 · conceded 26
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
9
31-45
5
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Anderlecht16 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 11 · conceded 5
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
