KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo34.1%fair odds 2.94
Draw26.7%fair odds 3.75
Genk39.2%fair odds 2.55
Expected goals1.33 – 1.44total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.90
- 1–28.6%11.56
- 0–18.4%11.87
- 2–18.0%12.56
- 1–07.7%12.97
- 0–06.9%14.42
- 0–26.5%15.33
- 2–25.7%17.45
- 2–05.5%18.07
- 1–34.1%24.10
Winning margin
5.4%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 18.51
10.0%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 9.99
18.7%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 5.36
26.7%
Draw
fair 3.75
20.3%
Genk by 1
fair 4.92
11.8%
Genk by 2
fair 8.48
7.1%
Genk by 3+
fair 14.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Genk goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 34.1% | 34.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Genk win | 39.2% | 38.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 50.0% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.7% | 55.0% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.33 | 1.30 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.44 | 1.38 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win34.1%2.94
- Draw26.7%3.75
- Genk win39.2%2.55
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw60.8%1.65
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Genk73.3%1.36
- Double chance Genk or draw65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo46.5%2.15
- Draw no bet Genk53.5%1.87
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.92
- Over 3.530.0%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.81
- Under 1.523.1%4.33
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.7%1.76
- No43.3%2.31
- Yes and over 2.544.0%2.27
- KVC Westerlo win and yes17.3%5.78
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Genk win and yes19.6%5.10
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.573.4%1.36
- KVC Westerlo over 1.538.2%2.62
- KVC Westerlo over 2.514.9%6.72
- Genk over 0.576.3%1.31
- Genk over 1.542.2%2.37
- Genk over 2.517.6%5.68
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet23.7%4.22
- Genk clean sheet26.6%3.76
- KVC Westerlo win to nil16.8%5.96
- Genk win to nil19.6%5.09
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.515.4%6.49
- KVC Westerlo −2.55.4%18.51
- Genk +1.584.6%1.18
- Genk +2.594.6%1.06
- Genk −1.518.9%5.28
- KVC Westerlo +1.581.1%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored100
Favourite won47.0%
Avg chance given to result38.9%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right55.0%
BTTS called right52.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.4% | 23.5% |
| 40–50% | 51 | 45.1% | 37.3% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 62 of 100 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6010 | 0.5975 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 40.2% |
| Favourite won | 46.8% | 48.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 62 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Anderlecht 3–1 KV Mechelen52·25·23
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–1 Dender77·15·8
- ✓Zulte Waregem 1–4 Union St. Gilloise28·27·46
- ✓Standard Liege 3–1 Charleroi47·27·26
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. Truiden61·23·16
- ✗Genk 1–1 RAAL La Louvière53·25·22
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 Zulte Waregem41·27·31
- ✓Antwerp 0–1 Club Brugge KV26·26·48
- ✓Gent 4–0 Standard Liege53·25·22
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 OH Leuven56·25·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 100 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.