KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 24). Genk usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. KVC Westerlo had 7.9 days of rest, Genk 6.8 and had to travel 43 km.
Away travel43 kmRest days7.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
KVC Westerlo34%
Draw27%
Genk39%
KVC Westerlo35%
Draw27%
Genk38%
KVC Westerlo34%
Draw27%
Genk39%
KVC Westerlo27%
Draw26%
Genk47%
KVC Westerlo35%
Draw27%
Genk38%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
Genk
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
42
AttackIn forecast
46
32
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloGenk
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
67%
Scored inContext
92%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.17
ShotsContext
16.08
5.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.75
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
69%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.33
Shots allowedContext
11.08
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
63%
Save rateContext
70%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
371
PassesContext
554
295
Accurate passesContext
484
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.75
FoulsContext
11.25
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.08
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.90
ShotsContext
15.20
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
30%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
67%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.10
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.63
BlocksContext
3.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
65%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
362
PassesContext
545
286
Accurate passesContext
474
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.00
FoulsContext
11.70
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel43 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 43 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
22B. Reynolds
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Genk · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| St. Truiden | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 33 · 1.36 per game | 16 of 33 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins2 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo1–1Genk
- 1 Oct 2023Genk3–3KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.83 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 92% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| KVC Westerlo | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 9.25 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.08 | |
| Match total | 3.41 | 4.83 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 3/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.00 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.82
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+25%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 23.3
Penalties0.13league 0.28
Home wins38%league 43%
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Aug 25H · KV Mechelen0–11
- D21 Oct 23A · RWDM1–12
Genk1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Feb 24H · RWDM3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo12 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Genk12 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
4
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
