KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 22). KVC Westerlo had 7.1 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7.9 and had to travel 31 km.
Away travel31 kmRest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen35%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen35%
KVC Westerlo30%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen42%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
KV Mechelen
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
42
AttackIn forecast
18
32
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloKV Mechelen
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.85
+1.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
44%
On target shareContext
44%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
78%
Box shareContext
62%
22%
ConversionContext
19%
—
OffsidesContext
—
18.50
Shots allowedContext
20.50
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
5.50
BlocksContext
7.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
57%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
416
PassesContext
378
338
Accurate passesContext
316
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.50
FoulsContext
9.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
69%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.44
BlocksContext
4.80
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
53%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
425
341
Accurate passesContext
335
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.10
FoulsContext
8.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel31 km150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Aug | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 31 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 150 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
33R. Neustädter
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
39T. Van den Keybus
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
18G. Yow
90Nacho Ferri
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
1O. De Wolf(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
17R. Belghali
6F. Hammar
23Moncef Zekri
16R. Schoofs
35B. Bafdili
77P. Pflücke
19A. Mrabti
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
KV Mechelen · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws2 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Mar 2024KV Mechelen3–1KVC Westerlo
- 26 Aug 2023KVC Westerlo2–3KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| KVC Westerlo | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| KVC Westerlo | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.30 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.10 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.67
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+20%league 33%
Fouls23.4league 23.9
Penalties0.00league 0.44
Home wins60%league 50%
KVC Westerlo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Oct 23A · RWDM1–12
KV MechelenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo2 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
KV Mechelen2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
