KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
KVC Westerlo were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. KVC Westerlo had 7.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 8.9 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days7.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
KVC Westerlo46%
Draw27%
OH Leuven27%
KVC Westerlo47%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
KVC Westerlo46%
Draw27%
OH Leuven27%
KVC Westerlo39%
Draw28%
OH Leuven34%
KVC Westerlo47%
Draw26%
OH Leuven27%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 29
Team strength
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
42
AttackIn forecast
17
32
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloOH Leuven
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
2.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
67%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
15.11
ShotsContext
12.00
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
34%
On target shareContext
31%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.75
68%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.78
Shots allowedContext
11.22
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.50
BlocksContext
2.75
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
58%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
359
PassesContext
339
281
Accurate passesContext
260
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.11
FoulsContext
15.56
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.78
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
3.22
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.80
ShotsContext
12.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
34%
On target shareContext
30%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
66%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.33
BlocksContext
2.78
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
58%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
350
PassesContext
346
272
Accurate passesContext
267
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.90
FoulsContext
15.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km333 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 333 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
25T. Rommens
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto
24Ł. Łakomy
8S. Schrijvers
27Óscar Gil
19C. Ikwuemesi
39S. Kaba
11C. Terho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
OH Leuven · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 15 · 1.20 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 KVC Westerlo wins0 draws1 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo0–3OH Leuven
- 4 Nov 2023OH Leuven0–2KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.78 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| KVC Westerlo | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.22 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.78 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.66 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.56 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 5.89 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| KVC Westerlo | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.70 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.80 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.97
Red cards0.34league 0.24
Cards 5+34%league 46%
Fouls23.8league 22.8
Penalties0.24league 0.30
Home wins38%league 42%
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Dec 23H · Anderlecht1–30
- L15 Sep 23H · Antwerp0–33
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Aug 25H · Genk1–22
- D24 Feb 24A · RWDM1–13
- L30 Sep 23H · Standard Liege1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo9 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
OH Leuven9 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 17 · conceded 21
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
