KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
11th · 28 pts · 23 played
WLLDW
First leg3–0
0–4Full time
St. Truiden
2nd · 45 pts · 23 played
WWWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for KVC Westerlo. KVC Westerlo had 6.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 6 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw28%
St. Truiden35%
KVC Westerlo36%
Draw27%
St. Truiden37%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw28%
St. Truiden35%
KVC Westerlo30%
Draw27%
St. Truiden42%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw28%
St. Truiden35%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.65
- Matches 26
Team strength
KVC WesterloSt. Truiden
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
42
AttackIn forecast
37
32
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloSt. Truiden
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
61%
Scored inContext
83%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
14.61
ShotsContext
13.96
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
31%
On target shareContext
31%
10.18
Shots in the boxContext
9.27
66%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.52
Shots allowedContext
11.61
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
4.20
BlocksContext
3.33
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
68%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
386
PassesContext
444
311
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.17
FoulsContext
11.78
11.48
Fouls sufferedContext
11.09
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
13.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
65%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.40
BlocksContext
3.75
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
400
PassesContext
465
323
Accurate passesContext
387
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.90
FoulsContext
10.50
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 276 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
39T. Van den Keybus
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
3T. Hata
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.82
St. Truiden · Away
1.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Zulte Waregem | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Anderlecht | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Dender | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | D 5–5 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 25 of 66 · 1.14 per game | 45 of 66 · 2.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 KVC Westerlo wins1 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 14 Sep 2025St. Truiden0–3KVC Westerlo
- 24 Feb 2024St. Truiden1–0KVC Westerlo
- 10 Nov 2023KVC Westerlo3–3St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.57 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 52% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 57% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| KVC Westerlo | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.04 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 9.82 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 13/23 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 13/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.35 | 4.30 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 6/23 | 30% 7/23 | |
| KVC Westerlo | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.60 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.85
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 41%
Fouls24.5league 22.9
Penalties0.65league 0.28
Home wins58%league 40%
KVC Westerlo3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W15 Dec 23H · AS Eupen2–03
- D1 Oct 23A · Genk3–32
- L13 Aug 23H · Gent1–31
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Oct 23H · RWDM2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo23 games · scored 30 · conceded 33
6
2
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
10
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
St. Truiden23 games · scored 33 · conceded 26
3
1
0-15
7
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
10
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
