KVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
KVC Westerlo
13th · 4 pts · 5 played
LLLDW
4–2Full time
Standard Liege
6th · 11 pts · 5 played
DDWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). KVC Westerlo had 7 days of rest, Standard Liege 6.9 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
KVC Westerlo38%
Draw24%
Standard Liege38%
KVC Westerlo37%
Draw26%
Standard Liege37%
KVC Westerlo38%
Draw24%
Standard Liege38%
KVC Westerlo31%
Draw23%
Standard Liege46%
KVC Westerlo38%
Draw24%
Standard Liege38%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
KVC WesterloStandard Liege
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
42
AttackIn forecast
29
32
DefenceIn forecast
29
22
Form indexContext
63
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KVC WesterloStandard Liege
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
2.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.40
ShotsContext
14.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
29%
On target shareContext
39%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
72%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.25
OffsidesContext
3.50
14.80
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.60
BlocksContext
5.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
52%
Save rateContext
69%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
449
PassesContext
449
372
Accurate passesContext
346
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.40
FoulsContext
10.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
12.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
29%
On target shareContext
41%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
67%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.88
13.90
Shots allowedContext
16.50
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.30
BlocksContext
5.40
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
54%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
438
PassesContext
414
367
Accurate passesContext
322
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.10
FoulsContext
8.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
KVC Westerlo
LLLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km63 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 22 · 4 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Standard Liege
DDWWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel68 km133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| KVC Westerlo |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 63 km | 133 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
2L. Flø
14C. Sandra
45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito
13I. Sakamoto
20C. Congreve
9N. Bassette
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
17Bernard Nguene
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
KVC Westerlo · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Standard Liege · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | W 4–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 KVC Westerlo wins2 draws2 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 19 May 2026KVC Westerlo1–2Standard Liege
- 11 Apr 2026Standard Liege1–2KVC Westerlo
- 22 Mar 2026Standard Liege0–0KVC Westerlo
- 21 Sep 2025KVC Westerlo0–2Standard Liege
- 16 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo2–1Standard Liege
- 22 Sep 2023Standard Liege0–0KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 11.40 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| KVC Westerlo | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.70 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
KVC Westerlo5 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Standard Liege5 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
