KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
KVC Westerlo
13th · 4 pts · 5 played
LLLDW
4–2Full time
Standard Liege
6th · 11 pts · 5 played
DDWWW
KVC Westerlo37.5%fair odds 2.67
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
Standard Liege37.5%fair odds 2.66
Expected goals1.55 – 1.55total 3.10
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| KVC Westerlo ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are KVC Westerlo goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.78
- 1–28.4%11.92
- 2–18.4%11.93
- 2–26.5%15.38
- 0–16.4%15.61
- 1–06.4%15.62
- 0–25.4%18.47
- 2–05.4%18.50
- 0–05.1%19.71
- 1–34.3%23.05
Winning margin
7.3%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 13.70
11.3%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 8.87
18.9%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 5.29
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
18.9%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 5.28
11.3%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 8.86
7.3%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 13.66
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
KVC Westerlo goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Standard Liege goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo win | 37.5% | 37.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 24.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 37.5% | 37.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 60.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.6% | 62.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.55 | 1.55 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.55 | 1.56 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- KVC Westerlo win37.5%2.67
- Draw25.0%4.00
- Standard Liege win37.5%2.66
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw62.5%1.60
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or Standard Liege75.0%1.33
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw62.5%1.60
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo50.0%2.00
- Draw no bet Standard Liege50.0%2.00
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.582.1%1.22
- Over 2.559.9%1.67
- Over 3.537.5%2.66
- Over 4.520.2%4.95
- Under 1.517.9%5.59
- Under 2.540.1%2.49
- Under 3.562.5%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes62.6%1.60
- No37.4%2.68
- Yes and over 2.551.3%1.95
- KVC Westerlo win and yes21.3%4.68
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- Standard Liege win and yes21.4%4.68
Team goals
- KVC Westerlo over 0.578.8%1.27
- KVC Westerlo over 1.545.9%2.18
- KVC Westerlo over 2.520.4%4.91
- Standard Liege over 0.578.8%1.27
- Standard Liege over 1.545.9%2.18
- Standard Liege over 2.520.4%4.90
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet21.2%4.72
- Standard Liege clean sheet21.2%4.71
- KVC Westerlo win to nil16.1%6.20
- Standard Liege win to nil16.2%6.19
Handicap
- KVC Westerlo −1.518.6%5.39
- KVC Westerlo −2.57.3%13.70
- Standard Liege +1.581.4%1.23
- Standard Liege +2.592.7%1.08
- Standard Liege −1.518.6%5.37
- KVC Westerlo +1.581.4%1.23
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won63.8%
Avg chance given to result45.3%
1X2 Brier0.500
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right42.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.5% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 45.6% | 47.6% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.6% | 84.6% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 64.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5137 | 0.5282 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 65.2% | 65.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 Genk40·24·36
- ✓Kortrijk 0–2 Zulte Waregem24·24·52
- ✓Cercle Brugge 0–3 Gent35·26·39
- ✓St. Truiden 4–0 RAAL La Louvière65·19·16
- ✓Standard Liege 1–0 Antwerp50·23·27
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–4 KVC Westerlo50·23·27
- ✓Charleroi 2–3 Union St. Gilloise31·25·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.