Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Mar 1 · 15:00 Het Kuipje, Westerlo
KVC Westerlo 9th · 34 pts · 26 played
First leg0–2 0–0Full time
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 56 pts · 26 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for KVC Westerlo. KVC Westerlo had 6.9 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 7.8 and had to travel 48 km.

Away travel48 kmRest days6.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise48%
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.51
KVC Westerlo24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise50%
Expected goals 1.09 – 1.65
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise48%
Expected goals 1.02 – 1.51
KVC Westerlo20%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise55%
Expected goals 0.91 – 1.69
KVC Westerlo25%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise48%
Expected goals 1.03 – 1.52
Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Westerlo)

No weather data yet

RefereeJan Boterberg
  • Cards per match 3.3
  • Penalties per match 0.33
  • Matches 30

Team strength

KVC WesterloUnion St. Gilloise
26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
42 AttackIn forecast 62
32 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KVC Westerlo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KVC WesterloUnion St. Gilloise
1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65
1.46 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.58
1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.71
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74
-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
62% Scored inContext 85%
31% Clean sheetsContext 46%
14.08 ShotsContext 14.92
4.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.42
33% On target shareContext 36%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.57
67% Box shareContext 73%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.10
12.50 Shots allowedContext 8.19
3.96 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.95
4.23 BlocksContext 2.40
2.68 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.45
66% Save rateContext 78%
50% PossessionIn forecast 54%
382 PassesContext 426
305 Accurate passesContext 344
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.87 Team ratingContext 7.01
11.35 FoulsContext 12.50
11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 9.42
1.62 Yellow cardsContext 2.35
0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.29
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.90 ShotsContext 13.10
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
40% On target shareContext 34%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.56
64% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 8%
1.71 OffsidesContext 3.29
14.10 Shots allowedContext 8.50
3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.63
5.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14
66% Save rateContext 75%
49% PossessionIn forecast 49%
382 PassesContext 390
300 Accurate passesContext 300
79% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.98
11.30 FoulsContext 11.80
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KVC Westerlo
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km69 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KVC Westerlo Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways69 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one66.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KVC Westerlo Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Jungdal(G)
6C. Nsiala 33R. Neustädter 40E. Bayram 22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort 34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer 13I. Sakamoto 7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-5-2
1V. Chambaere(G)
26R. Sykes 16C. Burgess 5K. Mac Allister
27L. Patris 17R. Schoofs 6K. Van de Perre 8A. Zorgane 25A. Khalaili
7M. Fuseini 20M. Giger

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KVC Westerlo Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

KVC Westerlo · Home 1.54points per game · 13 home games
W-D-L
6-2-5
Scored
1.23
Conceded
1.08
Union St. Gilloise · Away 1.46points per game · 13 away games
W-D-L
4-7-2
Scored
1.15
Conceded
0.85

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentKVC WesterloUnion St. Gilloise
Charleroi W 2–1 HL 0–2 A D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
Antwerp W 2–0 AW 2–0 H W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
St. Truiden L 0–4 HW 3–0 A W 2–0 H
Zulte Waregem W 1–0 AW 3–1 H W 2–0 HW 4–1 A
KV Mechelen D 1–1 AL 0–1 H W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Cercle Brugge L 0–2 HL 1–4 A D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Gent L 0–2 AD 0–0 H D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 HD 0–0 A W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Genk D 1–1 AL 0–1 H W 2–1 A
Anderlecht W 4–0 HL 2–5 A L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
Dender D 2–2 AD 1–1 H W 1–0 A
OH Leuven W 2–0 H D 0–0 AW 5–0 H
Club Brugge KV D 5–5 A W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Standard Liege L 0–2 H D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
Points34 of 75 · 1.36 per game53 of 75 · 2.12 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 KVC Westerlo wins1 draws2 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 27 Sep 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0KVC Westerlo
  • 10 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–2KVC Westerlo
  • 29 Oct 2023KVC Westerlo1–3Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KVC WesterloUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.311.65
Conceded per game 1.460.58
Match goals 2.772.23 2.53
Over 1.5 81%73%
Over 2.5 38%31% 47%
Over 3.5 27%15%
Both teams scored 38%46% 51%
Clean sheets 31%46%
Failed to score 38%15%
Games2626
KVC WesterloUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.301.20
Conceded per game 1.200.60
Match goals 2.501.80 2.53
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 40%20% 47%
Over 3.5 20%0%
Both teams scored 40%60% 51%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KVC WesterloUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.965.75
Corners conceded4.963.63
Match total9.929.389.88
Over 8.568% 17/2558% 14/24
Over 9.556% 14/2554% 13/24
Over 10.556% 14/2538% 9/24
Cards
Cards1.692.38
Opponent cards1.812.31
Match total3.504.694.09
Over 3.554% 14/2665% 17/26
Over 4.527% 7/2665% 17/26
KVC WesterloUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won4.675.88
Corners conceded5.893.00
Match total10.568.889.88
Over 8.578% 7/950% 4/8
Over 9.556% 5/950% 4/8
Over 10.556% 5/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.002.70
Opponent cards1.502.70
Match total3.505.404.09
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.520% 2/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jan Boterberg 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.20league 3.87
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+27%league 40%
Fouls20.1league 22.8
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins40%league 41%
KVC Westerlo4 with this referee
Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 1
  • D29 Nov 25A · Dender2–21
  • W30 Aug 25H · Antwerp2–02
  • L3 Feb 24H · OH Leuven0–30
  • L6 Aug 23H · Club Brugge KV0–11
Union St. Gilloise3 with this referee
Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 0
  • L5 Oct 25A · Club Brugge KV0–13
  • W3 Aug 25H · OH Leuven5–01
  • D3 Sep 23H · Antwerp2–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

KVC Westerlo26 games · scored 34 · conceded 38
6 3 0-15
5 6 16-30
5 12 31-45
6 3 46-60
7 4 61-75
5 10 76-90
Union St. Gilloise26 games · scored 43 · conceded 15
4 4 0-15
5 16-30
8 3 31-45
5 3 46-60
8 61-75
13 5 76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3 2 0-15
3 3 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 4 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
2 0-15
2 16-30
4 1 31-45
3 46-60
2 61-75
3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege RAAL La Louvière 11 KV Mechelen Zulte Waregem 21 Antwerp St. Truiden 10 Anderlecht OH Leuven 51 Genk Gent 30 KVC Westerlo Union St. Gilloise 00 Charleroi Club Brugge KV 12 Cercle Brugge Dender 00