Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lazio. Lazio had 4.9 days of rest, AC Milan 5.9 and had to travel 479 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel479 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lazio40%
Draw25%
AC Milan34%
Lazio40%
Draw26%
AC Milan34%
Lazio41%
Draw26%
AC Milan33%
Lazio33%
Draw25%
AC Milan41%
Lazio40%
Draw26%
AC Milan34%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
Warm
28°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 47%
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 50
Team strength
Lazio
AC Milan
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
53
AttackIn forecast
72
63
DefenceIn forecast
69
84
Form indexContext
71
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioAC Milan
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
2.18
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.51
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.67
ShotsContext
12.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
27%
On target shareContext
26%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
53%
Box shareContext
51%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
10.67
Shots allowedContext
10.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
3.00
BlocksContext
3.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
86%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
447
PassesContext
511
386
Accurate passesContext
446
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.67
FoulsContext
9.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.80
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
40%
On target shareContext
28%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
60%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.43
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.60
BlocksContext
3.60
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
67%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
479
PassesContext
464
422
Accurate passesContext
402
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.80
FoulsContext
10.30
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
WWW
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 9 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +4.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 7 Sep | 5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 936 km | 251 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
37J. Šutalo
15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor
21R. Belahyane
16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni
14T. Noslin
22M. Cancellieri
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
34Mario Gila
2P. Estupiñán
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
21S. Chukwueze
70A. Cissè
8R. Loftus-Cheek
9Gonçalo Ramos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- AC Milan+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
AC Milan · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Lazio wins1 draws6 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 15 Mar 2026Lazio1–0AC Milan
- 29 Nov 2025AC Milan1–0Lazio
- 2 Mar 2025AC Milan1–2Lazio
- 31 Aug 2024Lazio2–2AC Milan
- 1 Mar 2024Lazio0–1AC Milan
- 30 Sep 2023AC Milan2–0Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.33 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Lazio | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 6.33 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 3.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Lazio | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 2.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 6.40 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.10 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 3.31
Red cards0.28league 0.03
Cards 5+62%league 19%
Fouls23.7league 22.5
Penalties0.22league 0.03
Home wins54%league 38%
Lazio4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D4 Apr 26H · Parma1–11
- L22 Sep 24A · Fiorentina1–24
- W30 Oct 23H · Fiorentina1–03
- W2 Apr 23A · Monza2–02
AC Milan2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Sep 25H · Bologna1–03
- D7 Apr 23H · Empoli0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio3 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
AC Milan3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
