Lazio vs Atalanta – 14 Feb 2026

Serie A Gameweek 25 Sat, Feb 14 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 8th · 33 pts · 24 played WLDWD

0–2Full time

Atalanta 7th · 39 pts · 24 played WDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lazio. Lazio had 5.9 days of rest, Atalanta 5 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days5.9 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lazio35%

Draw28%

Atalanta37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.30

Lazio35%

Draw27%

Atalanta37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Lazio36%

Draw28%

Atalanta36%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.27

Lazio28%

Draw27%

Atalanta44%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.45

Lazio36%

Draw27%

Atalanta37%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.39

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 8

Team strength

Lazio

Atalanta

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

53 AttackIn forecast 48

63 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Atalanta

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

0.96 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

54% Scored inContext 79%

46% Clean sheetsContext 38%

10.79 ShotsContext 14.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.77

36% On target shareContext 30%

6.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

58% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.42 OffsidesContext 2.41

13.54 Shots allowedContext 11.54

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.96

3.63 BlocksContext 3.27

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.36

79% Save rateContext 80%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

469 PassesContext 467

401 Accurate passesContext 395

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.38 FoulsContext 11.08

15.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.58

2.08 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

60% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.50 ShotsContext 13.50

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

30% On target shareContext 27%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

56% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.89

14.30 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.70 BlocksContext 3.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

75% Save rateContext 83%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

471 PassesContext 446

404 Accurate passesContext 366

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.01

9.80 FoulsContext 11.70

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atalanta

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel481 km94 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Atalanta
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb	5Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,051 km	94 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

24K. Taylor 32D. Cataldi 7O. Dele-Bashiru

14T. Noslin 27D. Maldini 18G. Isaksen

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 10L. Samardžić

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atalanta Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio-1.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Atalanta+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 1.58points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.17

Atalanta · Away 1.27points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-3
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Atalanta
Juventus	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Genoa	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A	W 1–0 A
Lecce	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	W 4–1 H
Como	L 0–3 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Verona	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	L 1–3 A
Fiorentina	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 H
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Udinese	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Parma	W 1–0 A	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Bologna	D 1–1 H	W 2–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Inter	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 H
Pisa	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Torino	D 3–3 H	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Sassuolo	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Points	32 of 69 · 1.39 per game	38 of 69 · 1.65 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Lazio wins4 draws2 Atalanta wins

Goals per game1.11 – 1.11 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets44% · 33%

19 Oct 2025Atalanta0–0Lazio
6 Apr 2025Atalanta0–1Lazio
28 Dec 2024Lazio1–1Atalanta
4 Feb 2024Atalanta3–1Lazio
8 Oct 2023Lazio3–2Atalanta
11 Feb 2023Lazio0–2Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.33
Conceded per game	0.96	0.88
Match goals	2.04	2.21	2.55
Over 1.5	58%	75%
Over 2.5	29%	33%	47%
Over 3.5	21%	17%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	46%	38%
Failed to score	46%	21%
Games	24	24

	Lazio	Atalanta	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	0.40
Match goals	2.20	1.90	2.55
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	60%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.95	5.83
Corners conceded	3.71	4.65
Match total	7.66	10.48	8.76
Over 8.5	43% 9/21	70% 16/23
Over 9.5	29% 6/21	57% 13/23
Over 10.5	10% 2/21	43% 10/23
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.67
Opponent cards	2.75	1.42
Match total	5.08	3.09	3.98
Over 3.5	71% 17/24	42% 10/24
Over 4.5	63% 15/24	4% 1/24

	Lazio	Atalanta	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	5.22
Corners conceded	3.89	5.56
Match total	7.33	10.78	8.76
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.80
Opponent cards	2.60	1.40
Match total	5.60	3.20	3.98
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.81

Red cards0.00league 0.19

Cards 5+25%league 37%

Fouls28.1league 25.5

Penalties0.25league 0.32

Home wins50%league 38%

Lazio2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W3 Nov 25H · Cagliari2–00
D28 Apr 25H · Parma2–21

Atalanta1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W25 Jan 26H · Parma4–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.