Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lazio had 7.9 days of rest, Bologna 5.9 and had to travel 305 km.
Away travel305 kmRest days7.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lazio43%
Draw28%
Bologna30%
Lazio43%
Draw27%
Bologna30%
Lazio42%
Draw28%
Bologna30%
Lazio35%
Draw28%
Bologna37%
Lazio44%
Draw27%
Bologna30%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 61
Team strength
Lazio
Bologna
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
53
AttackIn forecast
35
63
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioBologna
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
0.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
46%
Scored inContext
77%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
10.62
ShotsContext
13.62
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
38%
On target shareContext
30%
6.54
Shots in the boxContext
8.85
58%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.73
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.31
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.85
BlocksContext
2.91
3.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.27
84%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
473
PassesContext
423
405
Accurate passesContext
351
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.62
FoulsContext
13.77
16.85
Fouls sufferedContext
14.23
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
16.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
42%
On target shareContext
34%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
56%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.63
12.80
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.10
BlocksContext
2.75
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
86%
Save rateContext
73%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
458
PassesContext
417
387
Accurate passesContext
347
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.80
FoulsContext
13.20
17.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel305 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 305 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 957 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
17Nuno Tavares
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
11V. Castellanos
18G. Isaksen
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
14T. Heggem
16N. Casale
20N. Zortea
4T. Pobega
6N. Moro
28N. Cambiaghi
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Bologna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Bologna · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Torino | D 3–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Genoa | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game | 14 of 24 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lazio wins1 draws4 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 16 Mar 2025Bologna5–0Lazio
- 24 Nov 2024Lazio3–0Bologna
- 18 Feb 2024Lazio1–2Bologna
- 3 Nov 2023Bologna1–0Lazio
- 11 Mar 2023Bologna0–0Lazio
- 14 Aug 2022Lazio2–1Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.77 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 1.92 | 2.54 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 23% | 54% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 8% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Lazio | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.70 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.09 | 5.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 3.77 | |
| Match total | 7.73 | 9.39 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 1/11 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.69 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.85 | 2.62 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 4.47 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Lazio | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 7.33 | 10.50 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.60 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.90
Red cards0.31league 0.14
Cards 5+34%league 38%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.11league 0.33
Home wins36%league 40%
Lazio5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L25 May 25H · Lecce0–13
- W19 Jan 25A · Verona3–02
- W27 Sep 23H · Torino2–01
- W26 Aug 22H · Inter3–12
- W5 Dec 21A · Sampdoria3–13
Bologna5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W14 Feb 25H · Torino3–20
- W15 Dec 24H · Fiorentina1–02
- W15 Mar 24A · Empoli1–01
- D1 May 22A · AS Roma0–01
- W22 Dec 21A · Sassuolo3–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio13 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Bologna13 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
