Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 58). Lazio had 7.2 days of rest, Juventus 7.4 and had to travel 526 km.
Away travel526 kmRest days7.2 · 7.4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lazio37%
Draw28%
Juventus35%
Lazio38%
Draw27%
Juventus34%
Lazio38%
Draw28%
Juventus34%
Lazio31%
Draw28%
Juventus42%
Lazio38%
Draw27%
Juventus35%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 57
Team strength
Lazio
Juventus
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
53
AttackIn forecast
57
63
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioJuventus
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
43%
Scored inContext
71%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
9.86
ShotsContext
15.57
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
32%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
59%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.57
Shots allowedContext
11.57
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
2.14
BlocksContext
2.71
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
81%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
439
PassesContext
481
373
Accurate passesContext
414
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.00
FoulsContext
12.00
17.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
15.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
30%
On target shareContext
32%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.14
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.20
BlocksContext
3.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
74%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
443
PassesContext
462
378
Accurate passesContext
397
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.20
FoulsContext
13.00
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km961 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest7.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel526 km273 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 7.4Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 526 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 961 km | 273 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
77A. Marušić
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
29M. Lazzari
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Juventus
Confirmed XI
1M. Perin(G)
6L. Kelly
4F. Gatti
15P. Kalulu
27A. Cambiaso
22W. McKennie
5M. Locatelli
8T. Koopmeiners
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
9D. Vlahović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Juventus+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Juventus · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Verona | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Como | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Lazio wins2 draws4 Juventus wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 10 May 2025Lazio1–1Juventus
- 19 Oct 2024Juventus1–0Lazio
- 30 Mar 2024Lazio1–0Juventus
- 16 Sep 2023Juventus3–1Lazio
- 8 Apr 2023Lazio2–1Juventus
- 13 Nov 2022Juventus3–0Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 14% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Lazio | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 14% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.33 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.71 | 4.14 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Lazio | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 10.33 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.74league 3.89
Red cards0.19league 0.13
Cards 5+56%league 38%
Fouls24.3league 25.8
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins40%league 37%
Lazio10 with this referee
Record6-3-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25A · Empoli1–05
- L16 Mar 25A · Bologna0–53
- W8 Dec 24A · Napoli1–03
- W10 Nov 24A · Monza1–01
- W30 Mar 24H · Juventus1–01
Juventus9 with this referee
Record5-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W13 Sep 25H · Inter4–32
- W25 May 25A · Venezia3–23
- D6 Apr 25A · AS Roma1–11
- W23 Feb 25A · Cagliari1–01
- W28 Sep 24A · Genoa3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Juventus7 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
