LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
LE Havre
13th · 26 pts · 23 played
DLWWL
0–1Full time
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 54 pts · 23 played
WWWLW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre had 6.2 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 7 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
LE Havre9%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain75%
LE Havre9%
Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain74%
LE Havre9%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain75%
LE Havre6%
Draw12%
Paris Saint Germain81%
LE Havre10%
Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain73%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 62
Team strength
LE HavreParis Saint Germain
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
20
AttackIn forecast
91
22
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreParis Saint Germain
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.26
1.26
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
57%
Scored inContext
91%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
10.35
ShotsContext
16.96
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.39
33%
On target shareContext
38%
6.18
Shots in the boxContext
10.48
57%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.62
11.78
Shots allowedContext
8.22
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.32
3.86
BlocksContext
2.74
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
67%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
375
PassesContext
710
305
Accurate passesContext
649
81%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.87
FoulsContext
9.78
13.65
Fouls sufferedContext
9.04
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
0.96
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
2.11
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
40%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
19.70
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
36%
On target shareContext
33%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
56%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.00
Shots allowedContext
8.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
4.30
BlocksContext
2.67
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
75%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
360
PassesContext
670
289
Accurate passesContext
612
80%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.20
FoulsContext
8.70
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km563 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel178 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 563 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
29Stephan Zagadou
18Y. Zouaoui
19L. Gourna-Douath
26S. Ebonog
32T. Pembélé
14R. Ndiaye
17S. Boufal
45I. Soumaré
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
27Dro Fernández
17Vitinha
33W. Zaïre-Emery
7K. Kvaratskhelia
29B. Barcola
19K. Lee
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.92
Paris Saint Germain · Away
1.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 6–3 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H |
| Angers | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 26 of 66 · 1.18 per game | 51 of 66 · 2.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 LE Havre wins1 draws4 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 22 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain3–0LE Havre
- 19 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain2–1LE Havre
- 16 Aug 2024LE Havre1–4Paris Saint Germain
- 27 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain3–3LE Havre
- 3 Dec 2023LE Havre0–2Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 2.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.26 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.09 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 57% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 39% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 9% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| LE Havre | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.30 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.62 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 3.24 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 8.57 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 24% 5/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 14% 3/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 2.61 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 22% 5/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 9% 2/23 | |
| LE Havre | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.50 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.30 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.39league 3.68
Red cards0.29league 0.29
Cards 5+29%league 36%
Fouls26.3league 24.0
Penalties0.32league 0.40
Home wins37%league 50%
LE Havre6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Jan 26H · Monaco0–00
- L14 Dec 25A · Lyon0–14
- W1 Sep 24H · Auxerre3–11
- L21 Apr 24H · Metz0–12
- L17 Mar 24A · Clermont Foot1–25
Paris Saint Germain6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Dec 25H · Rennes5–00
- W5 Apr 25H · Angers1–00
- W23 Aug 24H · Montpellier6–01
- W24 Apr 24A · Lorient4–11
- D30 Sep 23A · Clermont Foot0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre23 games · scored 20 · conceded 29
1
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Paris Saint Germain23 games · scored 52 · conceded 19
8
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
10
4
31-45
7
4
46-60
10
2
61-75
12
5
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
