LE Havre vs Strasbourg – 8 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 21 Sun, Feb 8 · 16:15 Stade Océane, Le Havre

LE Havre 15th · 20 pts · 20 played LWDDL

2–1Full time

Strasbourg 7th · 30 pts · 20 played DDWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were slight favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Strasbourg. LE Havre had 8.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 6.9 and had to travel 566 km.

Away travel566 kmRest days8.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

LE Havre21%

Draw24%

Strasbourg55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.79

LE Havre26%

Draw26%

Strasbourg48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.59

LE Havre22%

Draw25%

Strasbourg53%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.71

LE Havre16%

Draw22%

Strasbourg63%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.00

LE Havre21%

Draw24%

Strasbourg55%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.78

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Le Havre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 24

Team strength

LE Havre

Strasbourg

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

20 AttackIn forecast 40

22 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LE Havre

Strasbourg

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

55% Scored inContext 85%

30% Clean sheetsContext 35%

10.60 ShotsContext 10.70

3.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.42

33% On target shareContext 39%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.74

58% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 15%

1.93 OffsidesContext 1.84

11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.05

3.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.50 BlocksContext 3.40

2.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.84

65% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

373 PassesContext 507

302 Accurate passesContext 447

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.10 FoulsContext 11.30

13.45 Fouls sufferedContext 12.55

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

30% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.30 ShotsContext 11.60

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.56

34% On target shareContext 43%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

58% Box shareContext 69%

4% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.70

14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.10 BlocksContext 3.71

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

72% Save rateContext 69%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

363 PassesContext 563

289 Accurate passesContext 506

80% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.40 FoulsContext 9.30

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km442 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Strasbourg

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel566 km800 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	LE Havre	Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Jan	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	566 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	442 km	800 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99M. Diaw(G)

27E. K. Vinette 93A. Sangante 29Stephan Zagadou 7L. Nego

14R. Ndiaye 19L. Gourna-Douath 26S. Ebonog

17S. Boufal 45I. Soumaré 13F. Doucouré

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 6I. Doukouré 24L. Høgsberg 18J. Mwanga

32V. Barco 29S. El Mourabet

20B. Godo 19J. Enciso 7Diego Moreira

9J. Panichelli

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Strasbourg Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

LE Havre-1.3 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Strasbourg+2.0 pp

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 1.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-2
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 0.90

Strasbourg · Away 1.10points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	LE Havre	Strasbourg
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Monaco	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	L 2–3 A
Rennes	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 A
Angers	W 2–1 H	W 5–0 H
Lyon	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Paris FC	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 A
Lille	L 0–1 H	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 HD 3–3 A
Nantes	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Toulouse	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 H
Auxerre	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Marseille	L 2–6 A	L 1–2 H
Metz	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Lorient	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Nice	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	20 of 57 · 1.05 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 LE Havre wins0 draws3 Strasbourg wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.80 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

14 Sep 2025Strasbourg1–0LE Havre
17 May 2025Strasbourg2–3LE Havre
15 Dec 2024LE Havre0–3Strasbourg
4 May 2024LE Havre3–1Strasbourg
10 Dec 2023Strasbourg2–1LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	LE Havre	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.65
Conceded per game	1.25	1.25
Match goals	2.05	2.90	2.80
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	35%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	45%	55%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Failed to score	45%	15%
Games	20	20

	LE Havre	Strasbourg	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	1.20
Conceded per game	0.90	1.30
Match goals	1.30	2.50	2.80
Over 1.5	40%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	70%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	LE Havre	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	3.56
Corners conceded	4.61	4.17
Match total	9.17	7.73	9.18
Over 8.5	56% 10/18	39% 7/18
Over 9.5	33% 6/18	22% 4/18
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	22% 4/18
Cards
Cards	1.85	2.10
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.05	3.90	3.98
Over 3.5	65% 13/20	65% 13/20
Over 4.5	30% 6/20	30% 6/20

	LE Havre	Strasbourg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	5.50
Corners conceded	5.20	4.63
Match total	10.30	10.13	9.18
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.60
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.90	3.50	3.98
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.64

Red cards0.25league 0.31

Cards 5+38%league 36%

Fouls27.7league 24.2

Penalties0.46league 0.42

Home wins54%league 49%

LE Havre3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

D21 Sep 25H · Lorient1–13
L15 Dec 24H · Strasbourg0–30
L20 Oct 24H · Lyon0–43

Strasbourg1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Dec 24A · LE Havre3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.