LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre had 6.9 days of rest, Toulouse 6.9 and had to travel 663 km.
Away travel663 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
LE Havre36%
Draw30%
Toulouse34%
LE Havre34%
Draw27%
Toulouse39%
LE Havre37%
Draw30%
Toulouse33%
LE Havre30%
Draw30%
Toulouse40%
LE Havre36%
Draw29%
Toulouse34%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 101
Team strength
LE Havre
Toulouse
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
20
AttackIn forecast
45
22
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreToulouse
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
57%
Scored inContext
67%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.81
ShotsContext
12.00
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.84
58%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.94
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.38
Shots allowedContext
11.29
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
3.58
BlocksContext
3.35
2.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
65%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
373
PassesContext
352
304
Accurate passesContext
286
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.19
FoulsContext
14.10
13.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.05
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
11.10
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
41%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
59%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.00
BlocksContext
2.40
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
359
PassesContext
366
288
Accurate passesContext
300
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.50
FoulsContext
14.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel663 km914 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 663 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 914 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
4G. Lloris
29Stephan Zagadou
93A. Sangante
18Y. Zouaoui
26S. Ebonog
19L. Gourna-Douath
7L. Nego
14R. Ndiaye
17S. Boufal
45I. Soumaré
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
19D. Sidibé
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
22R. Messali
10G. Gboho
15A. Dønnum
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Toulouse+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-2
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 0.91
Toulouse · Away
1.40points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Angers | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 A | L 3–6 H |
| Nantes | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | D 2–2 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 29 of 60 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 LE Havre wins1 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 2 Nov 2025Toulouse0–0LE Havre
- 23 Feb 2025LE Havre1–4Toulouse
- 15 Sep 2024Toulouse2–0LE Havre
- 10 Mar 2024LE Havre1–0Toulouse
- 5 Nov 2023Toulouse1–2LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.62 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 52% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 48% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 38% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| LE Havre | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.30 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.74 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.53 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 9.52 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 7/19 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 4.05 | 4.38 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 6/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| LE Havre | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.90 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.64
Red cards0.27league 0.31
Cards 5+33%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 24.1
Penalties0.34league 0.41
Home wins41%league 49%
LE Havre5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W31 Aug 25H · Nice3–11
- W17 May 25A · Strasbourg3–20
- W24 Nov 24A · Nantes2–01
- W4 May 24H · Strasbourg3–13
- D4 Feb 24A · Monaco1–12
Toulouse4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L12 Apr 25H · Lille1–21
- D9 Feb 25A · Auxerre2–21
- L20 Dec 23H · Monaco1–22
- D14 May 23H · Nantes0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre21 games · scored 18 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Toulouse21 games · scored 31 · conceded 24
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
10
6
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
