LE Havre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
LE Havre36.3%fair odds 2.76
Draw30.0%fair odds 3.34
Toulouse33.8%fair odds 2.96
Expected goals1.16 – 1.11total 2.27
Likeliest score1–114.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| LE Havre ↓ · Toulouse → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are LE Havre goals, columns Toulouse goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–114.0%7.14
- 1–011.3%8.88
- 0–011.0%9.09
- 0–110.7%9.31
- 2–17.7%12.94
- 1–27.4%13.54
- 2–07.0%14.38
- 0–26.4%15.73
- 2–24.3%23.30
- 3–13.0%33.42
Winning margin
5.0%
LE Havre by 3+
fair 20.14
10.5%
LE Havre by 2
fair 9.55
20.8%
LE Havre by 1
fair 4.80
30.0%
Draw
fair 3.34
19.9%
Toulouse by 1
fair 5.03
9.6%
Toulouse by 2
fair 10.44
4.3%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 23.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
11%0
22%1
27%2
20%3
11%4
8%5+
LE Havre goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Toulouse goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LE Havre win | 36.3% | 36.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 30.0% | 29.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Toulouse win | 33.8% | 34.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 39.7% | 42.0% | -2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.8% | 48.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals LE Havre | 1.16 | 1.20 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.11 | 1.16 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- LE Havre win36.3%2.76
- Draw30.0%3.34
- Toulouse win33.8%2.96
- Double chance LE Havre or draw66.2%1.51
- Double chance LE Havre or Toulouse70.0%1.43
- Double chance Toulouse or draw63.7%1.57
- Draw no bet LE Havre51.8%1.93
- Draw no bet Toulouse48.2%2.08
Goals
- Over 0.589.0%1.12
- Over 1.567.0%1.49
- Over 2.539.7%2.52
- Over 3.519.5%5.12
- Over 4.58.1%12.40
- Under 1.533.0%3.03
- Under 2.560.3%1.66
- Under 3.580.5%1.24
Both teams to score
- Yes46.8%2.14
- No53.2%1.88
- Yes and over 2.532.8%3.05
- LE Havre win and yes14.4%6.96
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Toulouse win and yes13.5%7.42
Team goals
- LE Havre over 0.568.7%1.46
- LE Havre over 1.532.4%3.09
- LE Havre over 2.511.2%8.90
- Toulouse over 0.567.1%1.49
- Toulouse over 1.530.5%3.28
- Toulouse over 2.510.2%9.82
- LE Havre clean sheet32.9%3.04
- Toulouse clean sheet31.3%3.20
- LE Havre win to nil21.9%4.56
- Toulouse win to nil20.3%4.93
Handicap
- LE Havre −1.515.4%6.48
- LE Havre −2.55.0%20.14
- Toulouse +1.584.6%1.18
- Toulouse +2.595.0%1.05
- Toulouse −1.513.9%7.22
- LE Havre +1.586.1%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored194
Favourite won54.6%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right52.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| 50–60% | 52 | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 31 | 64.3% | 71.0% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.5% | 72.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.4% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 166 of 194 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5937 | 0.5836 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.6% | 53.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 166 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Paris FC 0–5 Lens19·24·56
- ✗Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 2950·27·24
- ✗Marseille 2–2 Strasbourg46·25·30
- ✓Monaco 3–1 Nantes61·24·15
- ✗Rennes 3–1 Paris Saint Germain11·17·72
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 5–0 Marseille71·17·11
- ✗LE Havre 2–1 Strasbourg21·24·55
- ✗Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC50·27·24
- ✗Angers 1–0 Toulouse32·30·38
- ✗Nice 0–0 Monaco29·27·44
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 194 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.