Le Mans
Attack0%
Defense risk−2%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Toulouse. Le Mans were without A. Bourabaa. Le Mans had 6 days of rest, Toulouse 6 and had to travel 498 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel498 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Le Mans36%
Draw25%
Toulouse39%
Le Mans39%
Draw27%
Toulouse34%
Le Mans37%
Draw25%
Toulouse38%
Le Mans29%
Draw24%
Toulouse47%
Le Mans37%
Draw24%
Toulouse39%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Mans)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 76%
RefereeAurelien Petit
- Cards per match 1.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Le Mans
Toulouse
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
27
AttackIn forecast
45
21
DefenceIn forecast
49
37
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack+20%
Defense risk−10%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Le MansToulouse
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
3.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.67
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
43%
On target shareContext
33%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
59%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.17
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.83
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
61%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
380
PassesContext
496
298
Accurate passesContext
428
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.83
FoulsContext
16.50
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
3.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.90
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
43%
On target shareContext
34%
6.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
59%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.17
17.17
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.83
BlocksContext
4.38
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
380
PassesContext
425
298
Accurate passesContext
365
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.83
FoulsContext
15.30
10.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Le Mans
LDDWL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km369 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 5 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Toulouse
DLDWD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel498 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 37 · 6 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Le Mans |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 498 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 369 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Le Mans
Confirmed XI
98N. Kocik(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
19D. Sidibé
29Lucas Bretelle
76Y. Larouci
10J. Vercruysse
23D. Traoré
18L. Buadés
14L. Mafouta
25D. Guèye
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé
2R. Nicolaisen
3M. McKenzie
22R. Messali
14N. Sigur
23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen
20C. Tengstedt
15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Le Mans
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −17.3% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes
- MID A. Bourabaa Core 7.25 Att −16.9% Def −7.4%
- ATT E. Colas Depth 6.60 Att −0.5%
Toulouse
Attack line −1.4% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT Julián Vignolo Rotation 6.75 Att −1.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Le Mans-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Toulouse+1.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Le Mans · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Toulouse · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Le Mans | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Le Mans | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.33 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Le Mans | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.00 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Le Mans | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.83 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.33 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Le Mans | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.83 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.10 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Aurelien Petit 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.50league 3.24
Red cards0.00league 0.15
Cards 5+0%league 28%
Fouls26.0league 23.7
Penalties0.00league 0.33
Home wins0%league 46%
Le Mans1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Aug 26H · Stade Brestois 292–21
Toulouse1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Sep 26A · Lorient2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Le Mans6 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Toulouse6 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Le Mans6 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
