Lecce vs AS Roma – 31 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 31 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 9th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–4Full time

AS Roma 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Lecce had 8 days of rest, AS Roma 6.9 and had to travel 504 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel504 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lecce17%

Draw20%

AS Roma63%

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.13

Lecce20%

Draw23%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.83

Lecce17%

Draw20%

AS Roma62%

Expected goals 1.00 – 2.08

Lecce12%

Draw17%

AS Roma70%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.39

Lecce18%

Draw20%

AS Roma62%

Expected goals 1.05 – 2.13

Over 2.5 61% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

31°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 68%

Heat stress

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 80

Team strength

Lecce

AS Roma

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

36 AttackIn forecast 72

30 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

AS Roma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.79

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.61

50% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 70%

9.50 ShotsContext 13.30

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

33% On target shareContext 40%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

66% Box shareContext 76%

10% ConversionContext 18%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.89

12.30 Shots allowedContext 8.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.22 BlocksContext 2.50

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

71% Save rateContext 71%

38% PossessionIn forecast 57%

283 PassesContext 509

207 Accurate passesContext 438

73% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.90 FoulsContext 11.30

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce W

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,477 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 60 · 3 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W23 AugA · Venezia2–01.4 xPts

AS Roma W

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel504 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

W24 AugH · Fiorentina4–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Aug	6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	504 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,477 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

3-5-2

30W. Falcone(G)

44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 5J. Siebert

3C. Ndaba 28Olaf Gorter 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly 17Danilo Veiga

69W. Geubbels 50S. Pierotti

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 23G. Mancini 87D. Ghilardi

43Wesley 4B. Cristante 17K. Koné 77Emanuele Lulli

18M. Soulé 21P. Dybala

14D. Malen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce-0.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
AS Roma+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home No home games yet this season.

AS Roma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Lecce wins2 draws6 AS Roma wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.63 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 50%

22 Mar 2026AS Roma1–0Lecce
6 Jan 2026Lecce0–2AS Roma
29 Mar 2025Lecce0–1AS Roma
7 Dec 2024AS Roma4–1Lecce
1 Apr 2024Lecce0–0AS Roma
5 Nov 2023AS Roma2–1Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	4.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	3.14
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lecce	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.40
Conceded per game	1.10	0.80
Match goals	2.00	3.20	3.14
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	70%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.00
Corners conceded	5.00	3.00
Match total	8.00	5.00	8.89
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.39
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lecce	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.30
Corners conceded	5.30	4.40
Match total	8.60	9.70	8.89
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.60	3.39
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.39

Red cards0.23league 0.00

Cards 5+34%league 17%

Fouls22.6league 23.3

Penalties0.20league 0.00

Home wins40%league 39%

Lecce7 with this referee

Record1-2-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 0

D24 Jan 26H · Lazio0–02
W11 Jan 25A · Empoli3–13
L7 Dec 24A · AS Roma1–43
L10 Mar 24H · Verona0–13
L23 Apr 23A · AC Milan0–20

AS Roma9 with this referee

Record6-1-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds4

W10 May 26A · Parma3–20
W18 Jan 26A · Torino2–01
W4 May 25H · Fiorentina1–02
W16 Feb 25A · Parma1–03
W7 Dec 24H · Lecce4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.