Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bologna. Lecce had 20.8 days of rest, Bologna 22 and had to travel 725 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel725 kmRest days20.8 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lecce28%
Draw25%
Bologna47%
Lecce31%
Draw26%
Bologna43%
Lecce28%
Draw25%
Bologna47%
Lecce22%
Draw23%
Bologna55%
Lecce29%
Draw25%
Bologna46%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 66%
Referee · ItalyLuca J. Pairetto
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Lecce
Bologna
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
36
AttackIn forecast
35
30
DefenceIn forecast
48
35
Form indexContext
14
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceBologna
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
2.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
40%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.40
ShotsContext
13.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
41%
On target shareContext
24%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
57%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.75
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
7.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.75
BlocksContext
3.80
5.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
68%
Save rateContext
71%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
352
PassesContext
479
275
Accurate passesContext
423
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.60
FoulsContext
14.40
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
12.10
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
40%
On target shareContext
28%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
66%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.89
BlocksContext
3.40
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
72%
Save rateContext
62%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
312
PassesContext
469
236
Accurate passesContext
406
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.60
FoulsContext
12.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
WLLWL
Rest20.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Bologna
LLDLD
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel725 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 14 · 2 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.8Serie A 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 22Serie A 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 725 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh
20I. Ilić
29L. Coulibaly
7A. Fatah
22Paco Esteban
50S. Pierotti
Bologna
Confirmed XI
25M. Pessina(G)
14T. Heggem
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
7R. Orsolini
91R. Piccoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −1.1% · Defence line −0.8% of weighted minutes
- MID M. Berisha Rotation 7.18 Att −1.1% Def −0.8%
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −6.9% · Defence line −2.4% of weighted minutes
- ATT J. Odgaard Rotation 6.61 Att −4.5%
- DEF E. Holm Rotation 6.77 Def −2.4%
- ATT A. Dovbyk Rotation 6.97 Att −2.2%
- ATT S. Mbangula Depth 6.35 Att −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna-0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Bologna · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Lecce wins3 draws5 Bologna wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.88
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets13% · 63%
- 12 Apr 2026Bologna2–0Lecce
- 28 Sep 2025Lecce2–2Bologna
- 9 Feb 2025Lecce0–0Bologna
- 2 Nov 2024Bologna1–0Lecce
- 11 Feb 2024Bologna4–0Lecce
- 3 Dec 2023Lecce1–1Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lecce | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 10.25 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.40 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lecce | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.00 | 9.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca J. Pairetto Italy · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 3.30
Red cards0.00league 0.04
Cards 5+100%league 26%
Fouls29.0league 22.0
Penalties0.00league 0.13
Home wins100%league 46%
LecceNo previous matches with this referee.
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce5 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Bologna5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
