Lecce vs Juventus – 9 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 36 Sat, May 9 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 17th · 32 pts · 35 played LLDDW

0–1Full time

Juventus 4th · 65 pts · 35 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were slight favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 24). Juventus usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lecce had 8 days of rest, Juventus 6.1 and had to travel 1,003 km.

Away travel1,003 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lecce16%

Draw24%

Juventus60%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.76

Lecce17%

Draw23%

Juventus60%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.92

Lecce17%

Draw25%

Juventus59%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.73

Lecce12%

Draw21%

Juventus67%

Expected goals 0.71 – 1.97

Lecce16%

Draw23%

Juventus61%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.90

Over 2.5 47% Both score 46% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 70

Team strength

Lecce

Juventus

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

36 AttackIn forecast 57

30 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Juventus

0.69 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.66

1.34 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

49% Scored inContext 80%

26% Clean sheetsContext 43%

9.63 ShotsContext 16.11

2.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83

24% On target shareContext 36%

5.59 Shots in the boxContext 10.29

55% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.65 OffsidesContext 2.07

12.49 Shots allowedContext 10.11

4.42 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.82

3.53 BlocksContext 3.09

3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

68% Save rateContext 75%

42% PossessionIn forecast 57%

322 PassesContext 517

243 Accurate passesContext 449

75% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.60 FoulsContext 11.80

14.11 Fouls sufferedContext 10.03

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 35 and 35 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 2.08

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

50% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

8.60 ShotsContext 18.10

2.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

24% On target shareContext 33%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

56% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.60 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.44 BlocksContext 3.40

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

64% Save rateContext 82%

39% PossessionIn forecast 57%

292 PassesContext 512

215 Accurate passesContext 440

74% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.06

13.10 FoulsContext 10.20

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,109 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,003 km251 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Serie A 2025-2026, 1 May	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,003 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,109 km	251 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 29L. Coulibaly 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

27A. Cambiaso 6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

8T. Koopmeiners 5M. Locatelli

10K. Yıldız 22W. McKennie 7Francisco Conceição

9D. Vlahović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Juventus+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 1.00points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-8
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.35

Juventus · Away 1.65points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 8-4-5
Scored: 1.35
Conceded: 0.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Juventus
Pisa	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	W 4–0 HW 2–0 A
Verona	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Fiorentina	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Bologna	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Atalanta	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 3–3 AW 2–1 H
Napoli	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Como	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Inter	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Sassuolo	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A
Genoa	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	31 of 102 · 0.91 per game	64 of 102 · 1.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Lecce wins2 draws5 Juventus wins

Goals per game0.57 – 1.57 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

3 Jan 2026Juventus1–1Lecce
12 Apr 2025Juventus2–1Lecce
1 Dec 2024Lecce1–1Juventus
21 Jan 2024Lecce0–3Juventus
26 Sep 2023Juventus1–0Lecce
3 May 2023Juventus2–1Lecce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.69	1.66
Conceded per game	1.34	0.86
Match goals	2.03	2.51	2.56
Over 1.5	63%	74%
Over 2.5	37%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	11%	23%
Both teams scored	37%	46%	46%
Clean sheets	26%	43%
Failed to score	51%	20%
Games	35	35

	Lecce	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	2.30	2.20	2.56
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	46%
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.18	5.33
Corners conceded	5.41	3.76
Match total	9.59	9.09	8.69
Over 8.5	68% 23/34	45% 15/33
Over 9.5	56% 19/34	36% 12/33
Over 10.5	41% 14/34	27% 9/33
Cards
Cards	1.77	1.46
Opponent cards	1.63	2.11
Match total	3.40	3.57	3.87
Over 3.5	46% 16/35	54% 19/35
Over 4.5	29% 10/35	37% 13/35

	Lecce	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	5.80
Corners conceded	5.70	3.90
Match total	9.10	9.70	8.69
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.90
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.50	4.00	3.87
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 70 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.76league 3.70

Red cards0.17league 0.18

Cards 5+54%league 35%

Fouls24.9league 24.7

Penalties0.16league 0.28

Home wins39%league 40%

Lecce5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

L12 Apr 26A · Bologna0–22
D15 Sep 24A · Torino0–03
D11 Dec 23A · Empoli1–12
L5 Nov 23A · AS Roma1–25
L20 Aug 22A · Sassuolo0–11

Juventus10 with this referee

Record5-2-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

L26 Oct 25A · Lazio0–14
W13 Sep 25H · Inter4–32
W25 May 25A · Venezia3–23
D6 Apr 25A · AS Roma1–11
W23 Feb 25A · Cagliari1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.