Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lecce were slight favourites.
Lecce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Lecce had 5.9 days of rest, Monza 7 and had to travel 927 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel927 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lecce48%
Draw25%
Monza27%
Lecce54%
Draw24%
Monza22%
Lecce47%
Draw25%
Monza29%
Lecce40%
Draw26%
Monza34%
Lecce49%
Draw24%
Monza27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
Warm
27°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 50%
RefereeValerio Crezzini
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Lecce
Monza
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
36
AttackIn forecast
34
30
DefenceIn forecast
26
37
Form indexContext
27
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonza
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceMonza
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
2.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-1.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
33%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.67
ShotsContext
12.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
38%
On target shareContext
35%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
45%
Box shareContext
79%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
5.33
18.00
Shots allowedContext
10.67
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
75%
Save rateContext
39%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
378
PassesContext
374
297
Accurate passesContext
307
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.53
11.33
FoulsContext
13.33
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.40
ShotsContext
10.10
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
36%
On target shareContext
34%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
61%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.88
OffsidesContext
3.63
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.10
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
74%
Save rateContext
57%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
313
PassesContext
426
235
Accurate passesContext
362
75%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.40
FoulsContext
11.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
WLL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,566 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 37 · 3 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Monza |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 7 Sep | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 927 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,566 km | 240 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh
20I. Ilić
29L. Coulibaly
99J. Monteiro
9N. Štulić
11K. N’Dri
Monza
Confirmed XI
20D. Thiam(G)
44A. Carboni
3L. Lucchesi
60E. Kouadio
7Ricardo Mangas
14E. Akinsanmiro
90M. Folorunsho
19S. Birindelli
46J. Robinson
28A. Colpani
9Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monza
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Monza-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Monza · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Lecce wins4 draws0 Monza wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.517%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 16 Feb 2025Monza0–0Lecce
- 15 Dec 2024Lecce2–1Monza
- 27 Apr 2024Lecce1–1Monza
- 17 Sep 2023Monza1–1Lecce
- 28 May 2023Monza0–1Lecce
- 11 Sep 2022Lecce1–1Monza
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 4.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Lecce | Monza | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 7.00 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Lecce | Monza | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.25 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Valerio Crezzini 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.09league 3.26
Red cards0.00league 0.03
Cards 5+18%league 21%
Fouls25.5league 22.5
Penalties0.27league 0.06
Home wins45%league 35%
Lecce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Oct 25H · Sassuolo0–02
Monza1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 May 25A · Udinese2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce3 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Monza3 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Monza10 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
7
46-60
1
6
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
