Lecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 22). Lecce had 4.8 days of rest, Parma 3.7 and had to travel 810 km.
Away travel810 kmRest days4.8 · 3.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lecce37%
Draw29%
Parma34%
Lecce38%
Draw27%
Parma35%
Lecce37%
Draw29%
Parma34%
Lecce30%
Draw29%
Parma41%
Lecce38%
Draw27%
Parma35%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lecce)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 57
Team strength
Lecce
Parma
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
36
AttackIn forecast
20
30
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LecceParma
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
50%
Scored inContext
50%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
9.61
ShotsContext
10.89
2.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
26%
On target shareContext
27%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.82
55%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.54
12.22
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.50
BlocksContext
4.24
3.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
68%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
338
PassesContext
335
259
Accurate passesContext
262
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.17
FoulsContext
10.06
14.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.94
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.40
ShotsContext
11.90
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
26%
On target shareContext
28%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
53%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
8%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.20
BlocksContext
4.44
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
332
PassesContext
345
251
Accurate passesContext
271
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.40
FoulsContext
9.20
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lecce
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Parma
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel810 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lecce |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Jan | 3.7Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 810 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,006 km | 53 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
3C. Ndaba
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
93Y. Maleh
20Y. Ramadani
19L. Banda
77M. Kaba
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
21G. Oristanio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lecce+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lecce · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Parma · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lecce | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Como | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | L 2–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Lecce wins1 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Parma0–1Lecce
- 31 Jan 2025Parma1–3Lecce
- 21 Sep 2024Lecce2–2Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lecce | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.06 | 1.83 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 28% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 39% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Lecce | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.30 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lecce | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.37 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 15/18 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 12/18 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.55 | 3.89 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Lecce | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.78 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.88
Red cards0.18league 0.16
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls23.4league 25.8
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins44%league 37%
Lecce7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L29 Aug 25H · AC Milan0–21
- L28 Feb 25A · Fiorentina0–12
- L26 Jan 25H · Inter0–40
- D5 Jan 25H · Genoa0–00
- D17 Sep 23A · Monza1–12
Parma1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Atalanta3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lecce18 games · scored 12 · conceded 25
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
9
61-75
3
4
76-90
Parma18 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
